Friday, 21 November 2014

10am update - the madness continues

US equities break new historic highs in the Dow and Sp'500. With a renewed push higher - inspired by more central bank action, near term upside are the low 2100s. Metals are holding gains, Gold +$10, whilst Oil is +1.0%


sp'daily3 - fib levels


Summary

The above chart is very speculative, but we're only talking about another 2% higher.

If the current hyper-ramp from sp'1820 concludes around 2110... a 38% retrace would offer 2000..... where the 50dma.. and many obvious natural supports are.

So... 2100/10.. then 2000 ?

Even if that is correct, a brief fall to 2000 might not occur until late Jan/early Feb, which (for whatever reason) tends to be a weak period.
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Notable strength, Oil/gas drillers, RIG/SDRL, both higher by around 2%... no doubt the bounce in Oil prices is helping. However, I am still holding to broader weakness in Oil to $65/60.... which should pressure the energy stocks into early next year.

Weakness... airlines, DAL, UAL.. -2% / -3% respectively... reacting to higher oil.