Volatility fails to confirm the new equity lows

With US indexes building upon opening gains, the VIX was knocked lower (intra low 21.48), but with afternoon weakness, the VIX clawed back upward, settling -7.5% @ 22.79. Near term outlook is for an equity bounce, with the VIX cooling back into the mid teens.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

We have an important issue to consider today.

Whilst the sp'500 and Dow broke new multi-week lows, the VIX failed to confirm it, via a higher high.

This is an important issue for all traders to keep in mind, and with the Trans/R2K both posting significant daily gains, it is probably just another sign of a short term turn.

Overall, I still expect an equity bounce of 2-3 weeks, to the sp'1950/60 zone, which should equate to VIX back in the mid teens.

Considering the recent price action in equities, commodities, and the VIX itself, I'm looking for sp'1700s, with VIX in the 30s. I suppose 40s are possible, but first things.... first.

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more later.. on the indexes