Wednesday, 1 October 2014

2pm update - interesting day

US equities continue to slide, and the equity bulls appear entirely unwilling to 'buy the dip'. VIX is still largely failing to reflect the weakness, higher by just 5%. In theory, at the current rate of decline, the market could be in the 1910s by late Friday.



Considering the current price action, there now seems zero sense in going long...even for a short term bounce...overly risky.

The one key problem remains the VIX. Even though I'm not short, it is annoying to see the VIX not +15% or so... and failing to confirm the equity declines.

...the following remains 'best bear case....


For now.. it is a mere 'hope'... and is ENTIRELY dependent on the 1920/00 zone being later than end of next week.

Stay tuned!

2.12pm.. Equity bears could do with a close in around 1940 to really cause some problems for the rest of the week.

VIX still failing to confirm the equity weakness... only +5%... hmmm

2.26pm.. It is the typical turn time... but... with the break into the mid 1940s... no point in trying to play a bounce here...

.. but neither will I short.

I suppose some could laugh at that.... but still, at least I'm not getting nailed today.

Frankly.. best case.... long from 1920/00....     and short from 1970/90....

Those would be trade levels I would be completely fine.

For now...lets see if the bears can push lower... with 90mins to go.

Notable weakness; TWTR -4%, FB -3.3%...  all the momo stocks getting hit pretty hard.