Thursday 23 October 2014

11am update - renewed strength

US equities push to new cycle highs on what is day'6 UP, since the sp'1820 low. VIX offered an opening reversal.. but failed. Metals are mixed, Gold -$13, whilst Silver is flat. Oil is building strong gains, +1.5%.


sp'daily5


GLD, daily


Summary

*I realise many out there are still calling a floor in the metals.. and miners, but no... the broader weakness remains. What was most notable about last week, despite some real upset in the US capital markets... Gold barely caught any kind of 'fear bid'.
--

So.. new cycle highs of sp'1954, and we're within 0.7% of my 'last line'.

Regardless of the immediate term, I'm going to hold to a 'no shorts' policy until the next FOMC announcement is out of the way.
-

Notable strength: oil/gas drillers, RIG +4%, SDRL +3%
-

11.02am.. The miner ETF of GDX -1.4% @ $20.15... set to lose the 20s... taking out the 2013 low... inline with weak metals.

I see GDX in the mid teens... as a given... the only issue is whether $10... if Gold $900....

Regardless... zero point in being long miners for another 6-12 mths.


11.10am.. sp'1956... VIX 15s..... this is starting to get a little crazy.... no doubt the QE fuel... the penultimate one is helping.

AMZN +0.9%... ahead of earnings at the close.... most stupidly valued stock in the entire market.