A second major weekly decline for the VIX

The October high of VIX 31.06 now looks like it won't be surpassed for some months. With equities breaking new historic index highs, the VIX settled -3.4% @ 14.03. Across the week, the VIX declined by a significant -12.9%.


VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

Suffice to say... the second major net weekly decline, but if you include the giant pull back from the spike of 31.06..the VIX has now been cut fully in half.

Now the issue is not so much whether 30s are viable before year end... but if the VIX can push (if briefly) into the low 20s.

--
more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities ended the week with strong gains, sp +23pts @ 2018. The Dow broke a new historic high of 17395. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.4% and 1.5% respectively.


sp'60min

Summary

... and perhaps the most bizarre week in the equity market this year.. comes to a close.
--

I could write a lot more.. but I am tired, and I'd like to at least save some energy to post the usual closing updates.

As always... sincerely.......... have a good weekend

--

*I hold a tiny option put position across the weekend. The only consolation is my entry (sp'1981) has a chance at recovering in the next retrace.
-

more later... on the VIX

3pm update - last hour of a disturbing month

US equities are flat lining, with the sp'500 set for a monthly close above the giant 2000 level, a clear 9% above the low of just 12 days ago. VIX remains broadly flat, which is suggestive of a floor, and a minor equity retrace next week.


sp'60min

Summary

*incoming news about Virgin space plane... the smaller rocket part... crashed.  :(
--

I'm tired... and frankly mostly burnt out. I should probably quit my whining though, I know others are in infinitely worse situations.

--
*I will hold a tiny short put block across the weekend, seeking to drop on ANY minor retrace next week.
-

3.35pm... chop chop.... VIX melting lower... -1.7%... in danger of losing the 14s again... urgh.

back at the close

2pm update - end month stress

US equities continue to hold significant gains. The sp'500 is still to break a new historic high, but with the Dow and Transports both having done so, it bodes well for the bulls into early next year. Metals remain weak, Gold -$25, with Silver -2.3%


sp'60min

Summary

... I could write endlessly about how this is unexpected (I thought sp'1950/60 was a bold 'bounce' target)... but really... today is pretty damn stressful.

Its not even about today though... as I'm sitting on a relatively small loss.. in a tiny little option put block.

It is the thought of what is ahead into year end... but more so.. across 2015.


Just how high are we headed? sp'2100, 2500... 3k....... 4k?

Hey, that might sound crazy, but then... with the Japanese Govt' buying 'the world'... why wouldn't we just keep on rising at an ever faster rate?
-

For those who are having an even worse day than me (no doubt.. Gold/miner bugs)... you do have my sympathies.

I can only suggest tea, chocolates...or maybe something stronger.
-

back at 3pm.

ps. I do really appreciate all the messages across this week... it has made all the effort worthwhile.

1pm update - equities holding gains

US equities are holding on to most of the gains built across the morning. Only a daily close back under sp'2000 would offer any hope that a retrace (if moderate) is viable next week. Metals remain exceptionally weak, having lost the 2013 floor, Gold -$28.


sp'60min

Summary

Suffice to say... end month afternoon chop... probably.

Even if some late day selling... a monthly close in the sp'2000s will be a huge victory for the bulls.
-

October.... what a month.

12pm update - VIX remains the anomaly

Whilst equities continue to hold very significant gains, the VIX remains the anomaly... currently a touch positive in the 14s. An equity retrace is of course going to happen at some point 'soon', but for the moment... the only hint of a turn coming is via the VIX.


VIX'60min

Summary

*note the opening reversal candle in the VIX... they are usually to be taken quite seriously.
--

With the Japanese Govt. confirming they are going to ramp up equity exposure - as part of the national pension fund... we're set to close with net monthly gains of around 1-2% for most indexes.

The actual monthly candles are all screaming bullish, with huge floor spikes... suggestive of upside into early 2015.

It would seem the sp'2100s are the natural target, and both Carboni, Riley... and no doubt some others, will be laughing themselves into the weekend.

--
re: metals.

With the floor taken out... Gold is effectively in free fall. An all out crash wave is now underway, and that of course has deeply bearish implications for the miners.
-

VIX update from Mr T.(date is again wrong, but it is today's)


--
time to cook


12.22pm.. VIX creeping higher.. +2.1%... with sp' cooling to 2011

In the scheme of things...still very slight changes though.

11am update - Halloween trick... and then a treat?

US equities are holding significant gains, although there are some signs of a reversal. The VIX has already turned positive (if briefly). Metals remain in collapse mode, with Gold having lost the 2013 low of $1179, currently -$35, with Silver -3.7%. Miners GDX -4.5%.


VIX'60min

GDX, daily

Summary

Suffice to say... a wild way to end the month.

A sig' equity retrace of some degree seems likely. Right now, best downside case would be 1970/50 zone.

Any hopes of sub sp'1900s.... now off the table.

--
time to shop... back soon.
-

11.20am.. Despite the continued gains... VIX holding just a touch lower.

Regardless of the exact close though, equities are set to close the month strongly.
-

Notable weakness, Oil -1.3%

10am update - opening reversal

US equities open significantly higher, with a new historic high of Dow 17355. The sp'500 is yet to follow, although we do have the Nasdaq at new post 2009 highs. VIX is offering an opening reversal....


VIX'60min

Summary

*Chicago PMI, 66 , vs 60 expected. A very strong number, and confirming the recent Q3 GDP data.
--

Classic hollow red candle on the VIX... with some black index candles...

It is suggestive of a reversal.... but I've low confidence in almost anything right now (aside from metals/miners).

A retrace of 'some degree' is of course going to happen, but I'm concerned we'll still manage another few days of gains.. before cooling lower.

Anyway... eyes to the VIX... lets see if it can climb across the morning.


-
*I'm still looking for a retrace, but right now... at best... 50dma... in the low sp'1970s... in early November.

Considering the price action... and the bigger monthly cycles - now turning bullish, the notion of <1900... seems completely out of range for some months.

--
Meanwhile.. there is utter carnage in the precious metals.

Gold -$32, with Silver -3.6%

This is naturally leading to a continued outright crash in the mining stocks. The ETF of GDX -4.5%


GLD, weekly

The 2013 floor is taken out.... next level is 95... equating to spot Gold $1000
-


10.10am.. VIX turns positive.... confirming the opening reversal candle.

Now.. don't get me wrong... new high in the Dow... post 2009 high in the Nasdaq.. this sure as hell doesn't mean some major drop is now due...

but a retrace into mid 1900s seems viable..if not 'natural'.
-


10.42am.. VIX remains a bit twitchy... but is still suggestive a key reversal is in.

Oil remains notably weak, -1.0%

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are sharply higher, sp +23pts, we're set to open at 2017, just 2pts shy of a new historic high. The Dow is set to open up 175pts, which will be a new historic high in the upper 17300s. Precious metals.... continue to collapse, Gold -$24.


sp'daily5

Summary

Well, without question, its white flag waving time.

The 'old leader' - Transports, broke a new high on Tuesday, a new historic high for the Dow looks set at this mornings open.... with the sp'500 set to follow.

VIX will no doubt drop into the 13s.. if not the 12s.
-


re: Metals.

Gold has taken out the June 2013 low of $1179. There is now empty air to the giant $1000 level.. which is possibly as early as next week.

Miners are naturally continuing to crash, in early trading, the ETF of GDX -3% in the mid $17s... headed for 15/14.

-

Update from Carboni



No doubt Oscar is (justifiably) very pleased with himself, and his original target of the sp'2100s are again viable by year end.
-
 
Well... with the down wave from 2019 t0 1820.. bears had a chance. A bounce into the mid 1900s was expected. We saw that... but it has just kept on going. This morning we're set to break new highs... and without question... its white flag waving time.

For the equity bulls, this is one hell of a Halloween treat.
-


8.48am... Metals continue to weaken...  Gold -$32, with Silver -3.7%     Miners GDX' -3.9%

sp +20pts... 2014
-

Notable weakness, Oil -1.4%... but then.. that is bullish US economy/consumer..right?


9.21am.. sp +25pts.. we're set to break a new historic high at the open of 2019/20.

Gold -$34.... miners GDX -5.0%.....
-

9.39am.. Opening reversal candle on the VIX..... interesting... 

End month trick or treat?

With just one day left of the month, equity bulls have achieved an incredible ramp from sp'1820 to a new cycle high of 1999. On any basis, equity bears must achieve some significant Halloween weakness, back into the 1960s, otherwise it will bode for upside across November.


sp'monthly

Summary

It is pretty clear... if we don't close tomorrow, with the sp -25pts.. back under 1970...the monthly close will be a pretty damn bullish spike-floor candle.. suggestive of upside into year end.
--


Looking ahead

Friday will be pretty busy.. with Fed official Williams speaking in South Africa, although it s very hard to say if any comments might be market related.

In terms of econ-data, pers' income/outlays, employment costs, Chicago PMI, consumer sent.
--

*I am short from sp'1981, and will seek to exit into the weekend... although considering today's closing level, even the low 1970s look somewhat difficult to reach.
-


Crazy market... what else is new?

Yesterday, I was seeking a micro double top of 1990/91. This morning, the market opens a little weak....and on a minor bounce...I short, the market quickly falls to 1974.. before a rally into the afternoon.

All things seemed 'tolerable', until that headline flashed over the Nikkei wires... yet it was a two week old story. How in the hell could the market seriously ramp on that? Having had some hours to reflect on this afternoon... I still can't make any sense of it.

This market is rarely boring. There is always something of interest going on. Friday will be no different. The key issue is whether bears can achieve a significant daily decline to offer some hope for next month.

I see a fair few people touting the sp'2100s, or at the very least, the 2025/50 zone before year end. I could counter and highlight the weakness in Oil, Copper, precious metals, miners... it could be a very long list. Suffice to say, new equity highs simply do not make sense right now, not least with QE having ended.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed somewhat mixed, sp +12pts @ 1994 (intra high 1999), with the Dow +1.3% @ 17195. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.9% and +0.8% respectively. Near term outlook is still offering a retrace to the sp'1930/25 zone.


sp'daily5

Dow

Trans

Summary

*this afternoon was offering a micro double top in the sp'500 of 1991, but that level was surpassed, arguably due to a story that flashed over the Nikkei news wires... a TWO week old story.
--

The break to a new cycle high of sp'1999, with the Dow 17200s is a significant victory for the equity bulls. All that is left for the bulls to achieve now are new historic highs.. and we're only 1% away.

The 'old leader' - Transports, did close lower for the second consecutive day, but still.. equity bears can get confident at all.

There is currently no sign of a turn... and until the VIX is back in the 20s... it remains a very tricky market to play on the short side.
--

Closing Brief from Riley



--
a little more later...

Volatility stuck in the low teens

With US equities seeing a new cycle high of sp'1999, the VIX was pressured lower, settling -4.1% @ 14.52 (range 15.75/14.07). Near term outlook is for the 14s to hold as a floor, before renewed equity weakness... at least to the sp'1930/25 zone.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to say... VIX remains low.. but on any basis.. we're due another push back upward.. to test the big 20 threshold.

Whether we can break the recent 31.06 high... will of course be entirely dependent on whether the bears can break back under the critical sp'1900 threshold. After this afternoon's crazy action (based on a two week old news story)... that won't be easy.
--

more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed somewhat mixed, sp +12pts @ 1994. The Dow (greatly influenced by Visa), +1.3%. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.9% and +0.8% respectively. Near term outlook is very borderline, equity bulls desperately need a monthly close at least in the sp'1960s.


sp'60min

Summary

Without question, today was the craziest day since the Wednesday of two weeks ago, when we floored at sp'1820....and with Fed official bullard alluding to QE3 not ending... and with QE4 viable.

Today's recycled news via the Nikkei news wires (Japanese Govt. to increase stocks as percentage of investment funds) has really caused some havoc to a great many bears.

I'd sure like to know who the hell re-issued that news story... and why. Keep in mind that it was 2am in Japan when the story appeared.
-

*I remain short from early this morning, from sp'1981... clearly underwater, and wondering what Halloween has in store for all those in market land

-
more later... on the VIX

3pm update - ... which direction we are going

US equities are starting to cool from their earlier cycle high of sp'1999. The 'old news' has caused havoc in market land, with truck loads of short-stops being hit, the largest e-mini futures trade in a single second ($0.5bn)... and problematic issues with market quotes.


sp'15min

Summary

Frankly.. I think the following sums up today...



--
Equity bears are riding a crazy boat... in a tunnel of madness... lead by a maniac.

Healthy market... right?

I love the drama of the market.. but today sure is testing my tolerance.


2.58pm... VIX -1%... set to turn positive.... CRAZY CRAZY market...

Indexes set to turn red......... well, aside from the Dow (due to Visa)
-


3.07pm... sp'1989.. with VIX -1.7%... choppy.. but there the hourly cycle is offering some huge bearish divergences into the weekend.

Notable weakness, INTC -4.1%


3.17pm.... Seeking a net daily gain in the VIX... in the mid 15s....  might equate to sp'1984/82..

Oil remains very weak, -1.5%... and that is pressuring the energy sector (naturallly)


3.40pm.... A crazy afternoon in market land. A lot will be said by many after the close... not least on the 'broken market'.. and the giant e-mini futures trade on the 'old news'.

As things are... seeking... more than anything.. a VIX daily net gain.

2pm update - recycled news story ramps equities

It would seem a two week old story from the Nikkei Asian Review has been reposted, causing a spike in stocks, making a new cycle high of sp'1996.. a mere 1.2% from breaking a new historic high. Crazy.... simply... crazy.


sp'15min

Summary

*see Zerohedge HERE
--

No doubt some bulls will claim this afternoons gains are due to 'real buyers'..but its clear... there is some truly suspect nonsense going on today.
-

Volatility is starting to slip again...

VIX'60min....

VIX in danger of breaking 13s.. if sp'2000s.
--

Frankly... this is getting damn annoying... not because we're higher.. but because of the reason we're higher.
--

2.10pm.... A crazy day in market land, with afternoon mini chaos.. due to the recycled news story on the Nikkei news wires.

A huge amount of short-stops are being hit... and it'd almost be surprising if we don't at least briefly break the giant 2000 threshold.

VIX battling to hold the 14s...
-

Notable weakness...  Oil, -1.2%
-

2.28pm... Its typical turn time of 2.30pm......

Market offering a short term top of sp'1999...

Crazy market...... today really is causing real problems.

1pm update - almost a micro double top

US equities remain moderately higher, with the sp' making a play for the Wed' high of 1991. A micro double top seems viable, before the first sig' downside. Metals remain in collapse mode, Gold -$10, with Silver -3.7%. The miner ETF of GDX -4.8%.


sp'15min

sp'60min

Summary

A bit of a messy day.... minor weakness, but we are effectively seeing the big sp'500 coming close to a double top.

I realise some out there are still looking for a straight run into the sp'2000s.. with new historic highs.. but I just can't see that.
--

Dow +150pts, but almost all of that is due to Visa (V) +8.9%.. which is pretty incredible.. but then.. earnings were pretty good.



1.23pm.. sp'1992.... hmm, surprising... no doubt a lot of short-stops are getting hit.. hence the kick upwards.

On any basis, I want to see a daily close back in the low 1980s... or today will be somewhat annoying.

12pm update - choppy, but weak

US equities continue to see minor chop, but there is weakness out there. With further declines in the precious metals, there is sector destruction in the miners, the ETF of GDX -5.4% in the 18s... headed for 15/14.


sp'15min

GDX, daily

Summary

*the action in the metals is getting close to initiating a crash wave. The June 2013 floor was Gold $1179. A break under that will open up the giant $1000 threshold... next month.

If that is the case, most miners will fall a further 35/50% in the near term.
--

As for main market... so long as we don't break >1991... price structure is a bear flag... targeting the low 1960/50s.... tomorrow.

--
VIX update from Mr T. (date is wrong... but it is today's)


--
time for lunch
-


12.17pm...I was looking for a micro double top  yesterday around 1990.. and we now look set to get one by 2.30pm.

Oh well, I won't complain...but I sure want to see the low 1960s tomorrow.. for a monthly close.

Notable weakness, INTC, -3.5%...


12.35pm... Double top... sp'1989... almost there.     Looking for this to level out...

VIX -3% in the 14s...

11am update - broader weakness

Despite the Dow being higher by over 100pts this morning, the rest of the market looks tired. The 'old leader' Trans has already slipped by -1.5%.. and there looks to be viable weakness all the way into the Friday/monthly close.


sp'15min

Trans,daily

Summary

*Dow is the anomaly..because of Visa.
--

Overall, market is looking tired...and due a retrace down to the 1920s....but clearly, that will take us into next week.

Meanwhile, utter carnage in the miners, GDX -4.3%...... the collapse...continues
-

*I am short this morning, from sp'1981, will look to hold into late Friday afternoon, with an exit into the weekend.
--

11.18am.. minor up wave.. sp'1984....

Meanwhile... absolute sector destruction..... miners ETF, GDX -5.6%... and Gold ain't even broke critical support yet.... but it will.

10am update - choppy open

US equities recover from their pre-market lows, turning a touch positive. A test of the 1991 high is just about possible this morning. VIX is showing no market concern, melting fractionally lower in the low 15s.


sp'15min

Summary

*I remain on standby to launch a short-index position. Am watching the smaller 60/15/5 min cycles.

Certainly, anything much above 1986... is pretty tempting.
--

Notable strength in the Dow, +100pts.... hmm
-

9.56am... SHORT-indexes (via SPY) from sp'1981....   smaller 5/15min cycles look tired.

I suppose we might go higher to 1990... but I'm content with my entry...
-

10.00am.. So, I'm short from 1981.. lets see if we can get a weekly close in the 1960s... or far better... the 1950s.. with VIX 18/19s.
-


10.15am.. Okay.. here is something pretty significant...

Trans.... unravelling...

Starting to look like we have a clear 'marginal new high'... with a strong reversal.
-

10.26am.. Miners continue to implode.. GDX -4.2%.... incredible to see.. but as expected. Only another 25% to go !

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -11pts, we're set to open at 1971. Precious metals are sharply lower, Gold -$9, with Silver down a very significant -2.8%. Oil is similarly weak, -1.3%, and that is no doubt rattling the equity market.


sp'15min

Summary

*awaiting jobs, and GDP Q3 data
--

So, we're set to open somewhat lower, and the issue remains.. was sp'1991 the top of a large wave'2 'hyper-bounce'.

Perhaps, but there will be no clarity until a break back under the sp'1900 thershold.

-
Notable early weakness, energy stocks.. CHK, RIG, SDRL, all lower by around -2.7%
--
Have a good Thursday!
-


8.31am..  GDP Q3:  3.5%  vs 3.0 expected, certainly, a fair bit better, and the mid 3s isn't that bad a number... but as ever.. could get revised much... much lower.

Market reacting  sp -8pts.... 1974
--

Notable weakness, Gold -$10...  miners......... GDX -1.1%.... horror show.


9.53am... eyes on taking an index short..... no turn yet though.... sp'1983...  and rising

The critical 1900 threshold

Whilst the Fed confirmed that QE3 is now concluded, the bigger issue is what about equities next month? The recent ramp from sp'1820 to 1991 - a gain of 8.6%, has turned many back to a broadly bullish outlook... but there remains underlying weakness.


sp'daily5c- the 3 warning levels.

Summary

I wanted to start the last post of today with something which I consider pretty pivotal. The sp'1900 threshold is unquestionably a key threshold.

In my view.. if we see any daily closes under sp'1900, it will open the trap door to a fast move to the sp'1650s - which remain a simple 38% fib retrace of the giant wave from Oct'2011.


1990s... then 1650s ?

The current 'rainbow' weekly candle remains green, and even if we close 1-2% lower by the Friday/monthly close, it will still be green. However, this is not unexpected, and it does not prevent the bigger bearish scenario.

sp'weekly7 - bearish outlook

I still think many are overlooking the importance of the initial break under sp'1900. That was a crucial support, and it was decisively broken. A great deal of technical damage has been done. The fact we've soared back over it, is not that concerning to me. Indeed... a ramp into the mid 1900s was expected.
--


Looking ahead

We have the usual weekly jobs data, and Q3 GDP (first reading)... market is seeking 3.0%.. which seems a little overly optimistic.

Yellen is due to speak at 9am.. but it is not related to the Fed, and should have ZERO bearing on the market tomorrow.
-


Still waiting

Today was interesting, but I didn't take any positions. With the new cycle high of 1991 in the morning, and weakness in the early afternoon, the smaller 5/15min cycles looked too low to launch an index short... so I held off.

Instead, I will look for a micro double top around 1990 early Thursday morning. If we get stuck there.. I'll start hitting buttons.. with a first exit target of 1925 or so.. within 2-5 trading days... along with VIX 20s.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities saw a new cycle high of sp'1991, but with the end of QE3, saw some moderate afternoon weakness, sp'500 settling -2pts @ 1982 (intra low 1969). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.5% and -0.3% respectively.


sp'daily5

Trans

Summary

*it is again very notable that the Transports broke a new historic high, but did close moderately lower.
--

A pretty interesting day in market land, and with the end of QE3, the market is finally going to have 'go it alone' for at least a few months.

*I'm seeking to launch an index-short early tomorrow... possibly on a micro double top of sp'1990 or so. First downside target is sp'1920s, with VIX back in the low 20s.
-

a little more later...

Volatility flooring

Equities appear to have put in a key cycle top of sp'1991.. and the VIX is building a floor in the mid teens. VIX closed with moderate gains of 5.3% @ 15.15 (intra high 16.28). Near term outlook offers the 20/22 zone, if sp'1920s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to say... VIX has probably floored in the low 14s today. 13s now look out of range unless sp'2000s.. and frankly.. that does not look likely.
-

VIX 20s look a rather simple upside target within the next 4-10 trading days.

Whether the VIX can break the recent high of 31.06.... difficult to say.. unless we break back under sp'1900.
--

more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities saw some moderate weakness, but closed only a little lower, sp -2pts @ 1982 (intra low 1969). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.5% and -0.3% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed weakness. at least down to the sp'1920s.. with VIX 20s.


sp'60min

Summary

.. and thus concludes a rather important Fed day.

QE3 is terminated.. and for the first time in over two years, the market will have to 'go it alone'.
--

*with the smaller 5/15min equity cycles on the low side, I decided to sit out this afternoon.

I will look to go short tomorrow morning, somewhere in the 1990 area.. which might be a fine micro double top.
--

*I will post on GDX, and the precious metals on my other pages.. later this evening.
--

more later... on the VIX

3pm update - post QE weakness

US equities have seen some moderate weakness, along with a VIX that spiked +11% into the low 16s. The smaller 5/15min index cycles though, are warning of a very viable wave higher to re-test this mornings high of 1991.... early tomorrow.


sp'15min

Summary

To be clear... I remain a watcher...

Best guess.. a micro double top of sp'1990/91.. early tomorrow... which will make for a great short entry.. since there should be a lot of divergences all over the place.

With the Fed out of the way.. and QE concluded... the bears have a very good setup.
--

Metals remain very weak. Gold -$14.. which is destroying the miners.. the ETF of GDX -3.1% in the 19s.... on its way to the $15s... along with Gold $1000.

GDX, daily

... carnage... 19.70s...
-

3.17pm.. Miners continue to feel the pressure of falling metals. .. GDX -4.4%.

Equities still look VERY vulnerable to another up wave to 1990 tomorrow morning. especially if Mr Market decides the GDP data is acceptable.


3.26pm.. chop chop... sp'1975.. with VIX 15.30s....

A daily close of 1980.. with VIX 14s.. seems very viable...

Overall.. today is good... QE is over... and now its a case of finding a reasonably entry.. and shorting down to 1920s. Whether we can break <1900.. .that will remain the ultimate question into early November.


3.45pm... sp'1984 ..... right on schedule....

Double micro-top of 1990... early tomorrow... then I'm shorting this market... with some high confidence.

.. back at the close.

2pm update - its QE3 termination time

US equities remain seeing minor weak chop. There remains a high probability of some kind of post 2pm bounce... at least to test the morning high of sp'1991. Regardless, having ramped 161pts across two weeks... this market is due a retrace.


sp'15min

Summary

I have little interest in chasing any initial drop on the FOMC.

Best guess... some kind of rally.. back to 1990 or so... maybe a micro double top of 1991.. and then lower... into the Friday close.

--
So.. as things are... I don't expect to hit any buttons until at least 2.30pm.. maybe not even today. After all, whats the hurry?

It will only be on a break of sp'1900 that the bigger picture is re-confirmed.


Updates across remainder of the day...


2.01pm.. QE3 concludes...

Eyes on the VIX... which is rapidly cooling back lower....

Seeking a test of the morning high of sp'1991.


2.04pm.. Twitchy VIX... +6%.. then +11%....

Still. . the smaller 5/15min equity cycles look highly vulnerable to another wave higher.

I ain't chasing this lower...


2.08pm... Equities still sliding, there is an obvious gap around 1962 or so... that is viable.. but frankly.. I've seen this situation before.. and it doesn't usually work out for the bears by the close.

Regardless... QE is indeed over... at least for some months.... Mr Market has to go it alone... into early next year.

USD +0.5%... and that is pressuring the metals. Gold -$10.. .with GDX -2.0%.. set to lose the $20s


2.18pm... USD continues to climb...pressuring all US asset classes... Gold -$12...

The miner ETF of GDX loses the $20 handle.... a post 2009 low.
-

Next support.. sp'1965/60 zone.. where there is a gap.. I'd be real surprised if we close under that.

Anyway.. King Dollar remains KING..... helped with the end of QE.


2.22pm... chop chop.. in the low sp'1970s... with VIX 16s.

Overall.. interesting weakness, but from a pure cyclical perspective.. we're due another up wave.

With the Fed out of the way.. I'll merely look to short the next minor up cycle... more likely early tomorrow.

Notable weakness: GDX -2.5% @ $20.. having lost the 20s.. just earlier.


2.27pm  market looking floored...

sp'15min

Bears highly vulnerable right now.

*I'm seeking a short from a viable double top of 1990/91
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2.37pm.. Bull maniacs pushing back.. sp'1980... VIX cooling.

Best guess... micro double top of 1990.... whether late today or tomorrow...

For me.. that will be a very reasonable short level... considering everything.

Metals remain weak, Gold -$14.   Miners destroyed... GDX -2.9%

1pm update - quietly waiting

US equities remain in minor chop mode. The VIX is notably higher, +8% in the 15.50s. Metals look extremely vulnerable this afternoon, Gold -$5. Energy prices are holding strong gains, Nat' gas +2.5%, whilst Oil is +1.6%


sp'60min

Summary

*the two leaders, Trans/R2K are notably weak, -0.5%
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Hard to say if sp'1991 is a key cycle top.. but right now... you can see obvious downside fib' target of around 1925... or 1905/00.

It will only be with a daily close <1900.. that a 'crash' call would become valid. Until then.... equity bears should be highly cautious.
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 ... back just before 2pm.

12pm update - holding pattern

Mr Market is in a holding pattern of minor chop.. ahead of the Fed. Interestingly, the smaller 5/15min cycles are resetting, offering a minor spike higher on the announcement. Trans is looking toppy.. having broken another new historic high this morning.


sp'15min

Trans, daily

Summary

So.. as things are... with the 15min MACD cycle as it is.. we could continue seeing minor weak chop until 2pm.

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VIX update from Mr T.


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back at 1pm

11am update - back to chop mode

US equities are set for a good 3 hours of minor chop ahead of the FOMC announcement (2pm EST, 6PM UK). VIX is somewhat twitchy.. despite the earlier index gains, +6% in the mid 15s. Metals are weak, Gold -$4


sp'15min

GLD, daily

Summary

*well, at least my power meter is swapped out, and I am all set for what should be an exciting afternoon.
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So... 3hrs until the official end of QE3 is announced. No doubt, the press release will detail the usual nonsense talk about 'low rates... as dependent on the data'.

There should not be any surprises, but still... considering the giant ramp across the last 11 trading days, a retrace of some significance is way overdue.
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Notable weakness: FB, -6.3%, .... TWTR is arguably falling in sympathy.. -3.5%


11.30am.. the chop continues.... 2.5hrs to go.

10am update - I have the power

US equities break a new cycle high of sp'1991, although the VIX is not particularly confirming the move. Metals remain weak, Gold -$4, and this is really impacting the miners, ETF of GDX -1.3%, set to lose the $20s.


sp'15min

Summary

... the power is back, much faster than expected.... thank the gods.

Bullish private electrical contractors.
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This mornings musical interlude...



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more soon...


10.34am... chop chop... looks like we can settle in for chop in the 1985/95 zone.

VIX remains twitchy.... +3.5%... not aware if there are any major call buying...  but probably some are.

Momo stocks weak... TWTR -3%... FB -6%  ... near term outlook for those ain't pretty.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch lower, sp -1pt, we're set to open at 1984.. a mere 164pts (8.2%) above the low from 2 weeks ago. Metals are fractionally lower, Gold -$1. Oil is starting with sig' gains of 1.3%.


sp'daily5

Summary

With the break above the 50dma (1967), there is open air to the giant 2000 threshold.. where the upper bollinger is lurking.

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Notable early weakness, FB, -7.4% in the $74s, post earnings. Vulnerable to a move to the 200dma in the 70/68 zone.
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Update from Mr C.



I would certainly agree with Oscar on the importance of recognising the new high in the Transports. Although the same situation occurred in summer 2011, and that didn't work out so well for the broader market 3-4 weeks later.

The little rant on Mr Spencer... I also have to agree with.
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Special note on the metals

The broader trend remains bearish of course, since the spring 2011 break. I'm seeing increasing chatter about another major collapse wave to the giant $1000 for Gold... before year end. That certainly seems possible.

Once Gold is testing the $1000 level... the miners will finally start to become an interesting consideration.

Good wishes for Wednesday trading
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9.06am.. futures turning a touch higher, sp +1pt... 1986...    Metals weakening, Gold -$6.


9.25am.. Watching the Cramer on clown finance TV... incredible to see he hasn't hidden in a hole since 2 weeks ago. Not surprisingly, he was utterly bearish at sp'1820.. but now is hyper bullish.

With weak metals, miners are following, ETF of GDX -1.1% @ $20.30.... a daily close in the teens... seemingly likely. 


9.35am... The power company is here... .and I'm about to have the plugged pulled... as they switch out a meter.

back... in 'some time'.