sp'weekly8
sp'monthly
Summary
So... new index highs... yet another day for the bull maniacs.
Note the upper weekly bollinger, now in the upper 2020s.. that is easily viable this week. More interesting is the monthly cycle, now offering the 2070s. By late October.. we're probably looking at the 2100s as a viable 'best bull case'.
WTIC Oil - still stuck in a range
Oil slipped a very significant -2.7% today, but still, prices have remained within an increasingly tight range since early 2011. With the start of a new month, we have a third consecutive red candle on the 'rainbow' chart. We've not seen 3 in a row since summer 2012.. when the sp'500 was a mere 1266 (along with VIX 27s).
WTIC, monthly'2, rainbow
Equity/deflationary bears need a monthly close <$90.. which of course is now just 3% away. Conversely, macro-bulls should merely look for Oil to remain range bound.. $90/110 for another year or two. My guess is that the $90s will hold in the current multi-month down wave.
Looking ahead
We have a trio of interesting aspects to be watchful of tomorrow, ADP jobs, factory orders, and the Fed beige book. That will be plenty enough to motivate the market.
*there is QE of around $1.5bn.... bears beware.
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Goodnight from London