Wednesday, 10 September 2014

Daily Wrap

US indexes closed moderately weak, sp -13pts at 1988. With the break of 1990, there is now viable downside to the low 1970s, along with VIX in the 15s. Regardless of the ongoing weakness, the broader trend remains bullish, with target upside to 2030/50.

sp'daily3 - fib retrace



A pretty tiresome day, and frankly I'm getting real frustrated with most of it.

With the failure to hold sp'1990, the market looks vulnerable to further downside.. across Wed/early Thursday. Primary short term downside looks to be the low 1970s, where there is a minor gap, along with 38% fib retrace of 2011/1904. So yes.. I'm now expecting continued weakness.. before we push to new highs within another week or two.

VIX 15s?

There is a clear gap in the 15s.. it would make for a natural cycle top.. especially if sp' slips to 1975/70.

It is notable that the weekly 'rainbow' candle is blue, with first key support at the 10MA of 1972. I would be VERY surprised if we break into the 1960s. Price action sure doesn't support it.

Closing update from Riley

It does look once again that we'll see an equity cycle low at the Thurs/Friday in the week before opex.

Looking ahead

There isn't much tomorrow, just wholesale trade data, and the EIA oil report.

*QE-pomo will amount to just $0.4bn

I hold a small SPY block (long) overnight.. if we fall into the 1970s... I'll likely pick up a secondary much larger SPY block... and look to drop into next Friday's opex

Goodnight from London