sp'daily3 - fib retrace
sp'weekly8
Summary
A pretty tiresome day, and frankly I'm getting real frustrated with most of it.
With the failure to hold sp'1990, the market looks vulnerable to further downside.. across Wed/early Thursday. Primary short term downside looks to be the low 1970s, where there is a minor gap, along with 38% fib retrace of 2011/1904. So yes.. I'm now expecting continued weakness.. before we push to new highs within another week or two.
VIX 15s?
There is a clear gap in the 15s.. it would make for a natural cycle top.. especially if sp' slips to 1975/70.
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It is notable that the weekly 'rainbow' candle is blue, with first key support at the 10MA of 1972. I would be VERY surprised if we break into the 1960s. Price action sure doesn't support it.
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Closing update from Riley
It does look once again that we'll see an equity cycle low at the Thurs/Friday in the week before opex.
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Looking ahead
There isn't much tomorrow, just wholesale trade data, and the EIA oil report.
*QE-pomo will amount to just $0.4bn
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I hold a small SPY block (long) overnight.. if we fall into the 1970s... I'll likely pick up a secondary much larger SPY block... and look to drop into next Friday's opex
Goodnight from London