Tuesday, 5 August 2014

Swings across the week

US equities started the week with a minor bounce, but remain highly vulnerable to breaking the Friday low of sp'1916. A further wave down to 1910/00 seems likely, before the bull maniacs get their first real chance of making an attempt to significantly rally.



*the above outlook is probably my 'best guess'. I would drop it if we break below the March high of 1897.

So, we've started the week with a blue candle (it was red in the morning)..and indeed, I'm somewhat still suspicious that the market will see another wave lower, before the bulls get a better chance of a more significant rally.

Best case for the bears?

For those who think a multi-month top might be in... the following would be a primary scenario...


Equity bears need a break under the March high of 1897. Only if that is taken out, can the much bolder target of the lower weekly bollinger - currently @ 1818, be a valid target. I remain concerned that a further wave higher high >1991 is possible into mid September.

Looking ahead

Tuesday will see factory orders, PMI & ISM service sector data

*next sig' QE-pomo is Thursday.

Just another day

Another day of summer 2014 has come.. and gone. A really scary thought (at least to me) is that it won't be long until NFL starts again - always one of the primary reminders that 'winter is coming'.

With last Thursdays index fall of -2%, I'm battling hard to 'not get lost in bearish hysteria'. The usual suspects are (not surprisingly) touting collapse waves in the relatively near term. I remain somewhat resistant to reading almost any news lately. After all, whats the point? Its just the usual 'death and destruction', with a sprinkling of irrelevant celebrity updates.

Tuesday will likely be just another day, I can only hope some of you out there, get something good from it.

Goodnight from London