sp'weekly8b
R2K, weekly
Summary
It has been a very busy week, not least with all the comments/emails from some of you!
We closed with a second consecutive red candle on the weekly 'rainbow' chart, something we've not seen since January. Certainly, it was a week for the bears, even though the market managed some significant Friday gains.
Overall, it looks like we have broken the near term down trend. The big issue is will we get stuck... putting in our first lower high (probably <sp'1970)...or...can the giant 2000 threshold yet be broken in September?
Right now... it is too difficult to guess. First things first.... lets see what the bulls can manage next week on a 3-6 day bounce/rally.
*I hold LONG the indexes across the weekend.
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An October crash?
I'll end the week with this video...
First, I should note, Mannarino has greatly annoyed me at times across the last year or so. I'm still suspicious that he drops key words (crash, collapse, etc) just to garner extra web traffic but I have to note, the guy is way more balanced than he used to be.
His outlook is effectively the primary scenario that I currently favour (see chart weekly8b), where the 1991/04 decline was a sub'4 of 5.. and a fifth is now underway.
see article at seeking alpha.
There are a number of reasons I could add about why October could be problematic for the US capital markets. However, for now, I think most investors should merely be mindful of the bigger monthly cycles that are rolling over, but more on that tomorrow.
Goodnight from London