Tuesday 26 August 2014

Pushing higher into September

With the sp' breaking the giant 2000 threshold, the broader market looks set to continue pushing higher into next month. There looks to be reasonable upside to sp'2010/15 in the immediate term, and 2030/50 zone by mid/late September.


sp'weekly8b


Summary

So.. a second green candle on the weekly 'rainbow' cycle. On any 'fair' outlook, we'll surely close this week green, next week will be green, and maybe the first blue candle will appear around 2025/30 by mid September.

2050 will be difficult to hit next month, but there are plenty of reasons why we might get there...not least the following...

sp'daily3 - fib levels


The 2040/50 zone....would make for a very reasonable short term top. On the subsequent down cycle, bears should be seeking a re-test of the low 1900s, potentially forming a H/S formation.


Looking ahead

There are a few pieces of econ-data tomorrow, Durable goods orders, housing, and consumer confidence.

*there is sig' QE of around $2.0/2.5bn...bears beware!
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Smooth sailing into end year?

I've seen a lot of powerfully bullish outlooks across the past two trading days. Just last Friday, one guest on clown finance TV had upped his year end target from 1850 to 2300. Today, there were at least two guests touting the sp'2100s. Carboni and Riley are of course also seeking the 2100s.

Given a few more weeks we'll top out (at least on the weekly cycles), but then what? A little drop of 50/75pts...or...perhaps more...to the 1900 threshold. What is now clear... equity bears need a break <1900 to cause some initial damage to the primary trend.

... all traders should be somewhat mindful of possible trouble this autumn.



Goodnight from London