Tuesday, 12 August 2014

A bounce or new up wave?

US equities closed higher for the second consecutive day, and the issue now is whether the market will put in a lower high (<sp'1991).. or whether this is merely the start of another multi-week up wave. Best guess....sp'2030/50 zone in September.




So...a second day higher, and we're on our way to the first target zone of the 1950/60s. The big issue is whether...

1. we get stuck 1950/60... fail....and break a new low <1904
2. we get stuck...   fail..... but put in a higher low >1904...and break 1970s on 2nd attempt
3. we just push right through into the 1970s

Personally...I'd guess, scenario '2'.

Chart daily'3 is a simple Fibonacci 1.6x extrapolation... it might be overly bullish, but if the giant sp'2000 threshold is breached, a further 2% wouldn't be that much to expect.

Looking ahead

There is nothing of any real significance tomorrow.

*next sig' QE is Thursday

Video from Gordon T Long - Tops are a process

*The following was posted on youtube over the weekend, but was originally released for Mr Long's subscribers in June.

Interestingly, downside to the low 1600s I'd agree with, along with a subsequent major bounce.. perhaps to a new high. As ever, always worth seeing.

I'm trying.... really

So... I exited this morning at sp'1941.. and long again this afternoon from 1937. Hourly cycles are offering a bull flag..and frankly.. the sp'1950/55 zone looks a rather easy target. The only threat is a sporadic news story, but hey, isn't that always the case?

Right now, I'm trying to be careful, make some gains on the long side, and be mindful that the bigger monthly cycles are rolling over. A peak in the low sp'2000s next month looks very viable, and would make for one hell of a level to short the market from.

Goodnight from London