Wednesday, 16 July 2014

New historic highs verses the weak R2K

There is a somewhat growing disparity between a few of the equity indexes in recent days. Whilst new historic highs have been achieved in the Dow and Transports, the R2K has again been noticeably weak, briefly breaking below the 1150 threshold today.


Dow, weekly


R2K, weekly


Summary

So, we have another set of new highs for the Dow and Trans, and the sp'500 came within 3pts of the recent 1985 high. Yet, the R2K is currently lower for the second consecutive week, and is now below the weekly 10MA - the equiv' of sp'1945 or so.

On balance though, new historic highs are far more important than the weakness of one index. Further, the VIX remains unable to break & hold the 13s, and is utterly reflective of a market that has very high confidence in itself.

Certainly, broader market price action does not support any short, mid,  or least of all, a long term bearish outlook. I won't be shorting the indexes, or long VIX, any time soon.


Looking ahead

Wednesday will see the Yellen make another appearance, this time in front of the US congress. That will be the focus of the market tomorrow, and will likely last around 2-3 hours.

There are also a few pieces of data, most notably, industrial production. At 2pm, the latest Fed beige book is released and that will likely focus market chatter as to what Q2 GDP might be (due July'30).

*next sig' QE is Thursday.
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Video from Gordon T Long and Smith



*I didn't use parental discretion whilst viewing. was that.. bad?
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Goodnight from London