sp'weekly8b
Summary
*the attached count remains a best guess.. and yes, right now, we're still in sub'3...although I'd count the current wave (since the sp'1925 low) as an even smaller fifth. On any basis, I do NOT expect sub 1900s until late July at the very earliest.
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So..with a daily close in the sp'1940s, we have seen the weekly 'rainbow' candle flip from blue to green. That makes for TEN consecutive green candles, which is pretty incredible.
I hold to a broader outlook of upside into mid July. From there, we are sure to fall, but... will it be just another small 4-6% retrace... or something more? I'm still keeping in mind that the spring weakness in the R2K/Nasdaq was a preliminary warning of trouble for the market this year.
Looking ahead
Tomorrow will of course be all about the FOMC announcement, due at 2pm. Yellen is due to host a press' conf. shortly after. The market - as am I, is expecting QE taper'5, taking QE fuel down to $35bn a month, beginning July'1st.
*next sig' QE-pomo is not until Thursday.
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Holding long into the FOMC
Yours truly is holding a trio of long positions. CHK and WFM are both somewhat annoying lately. They have failed to continue climbing, but are perhaps merely in a 'coiling' stage. I'd settle for $31 and $43 respectively this week. I also hold an IWM call block, and seek an exit in the R2K 1190/1200 zone, which appears possible as early as late tomorrow.
R2K, daily
Generally, I don't hold any positions into a Fed day, so tomorrow will be kinda unusual for me, although I don't expect any surprises from the FOMC. So long as Yellen doesn't say anything 'stupid' about interest rates, the market should manage to battle to the upside.
Goodnight from London