Thursday 5 June 2014

Awaiting the ECB

US, and most world equity markets are awaiting the next scheduled policy announcement from the ECB. It would seem highly probable that interest rates will be fractionally reduced, but that there will not be a QE program. How the market reacts to no ECB QE-fuel, will likely be the big issue for Thursday.


sp'weekly8


R2K weekly2


Summary

I would draw attention to what remains a valid H/S scenario for the R2K. Such a bearish outlook would get dropped on any daily close back in the 1200s, but that is a further 6% higher.
-

The R2K/Nasdaq looked pretty strong today, and certainly, are highly suggestive of another 1-2% higher in the immediate term. The bigger issue is whether the R2K is setting up a giant H/S formation. As ever, it is just one scenario, but from a bearish perspective, it is a particularly attractive one for this summer.


Schiff on smaller product sizes



I think most should be well aware of the growing issue of everyday products being reduced in size. In fact, its often worse, with a higher price for a smaller product.

..but hey...the Fed and ECB are telling us deflation is a problem. I guess the Schiff, myself, and many others are just perceiving things incorrectly.

The issue of lower quality products (or services) is something few bring up, and I have to commend Schiff on highlighting it. BBC news did a similar report on electrical items recently. They noted how old washing machines would typically last 10yrs, but now consumers are lucky if their machine last 5-7yrs.

Such issues are a strong sign of the underlying degradation of the western economies.
--


Looking ahead

Tomorrow will of course be all about the ECB decision.

My best guess, lower rates, but no QE. The tricky part is whether the market will still believe 'ohh, but the QE will come later in the year'. I'm guessing that will indeed be the outcome, with the broader capital markets somewhat... 'content'.

*there will be sig' QE-pomo of $2-3bn
--

Goodnight from London