Tuesday, 20 May 2014

3pm update - just another tease?

Mr Market has seen some borderline significant weakness today, with the sp' slipping to 1868, but is that it? Price action remains weak, but the broader upward trends are largely intact. So far..even the battered R2K is holding above last Thursdays low.


R2K, daily


*I remain long, but yes..it is getting pretty close to the edge now.

It is notable that the bears have been in control of the R2K..and Nasdaq for around TEN weeks. Sure, it has been choppy on the way down...but still..we've not seen that kind of decline since summer 2012.

As it is. from a pure technical perspective..the cycle is low...and we're STILL due another up wave.

So..for now..unless R2K <1080...along with sp'1850s...I hold to the original outlook.

3.11pm.. VIX cooling down.. hourly MACD cycle...rolling over....

If today was just a tease...then we have a floor of sp'1868, with VIX 13.30.

3.14pm.. interesting chat with Santelli on CNBC....talk of recession...hmm

Hourly equity cycles offer upside across Wed/Thursday....'potential'....as ever..but from a pure cyclical perspective...bears should be bailing into the close.

3.28pm... market creeping back upward....still net declines..but the early signs are there for tomorrow.

3.39pm.. clear turns on ALL indexes...

Could be a bear bloodbath tomorrow...and that is speaking purely from a 'cyclical' perspective.

..and yes...I am fully biased..with the R2K at 1100....seeking the 1140s, and that is 3.7% higher...

3.45pm... clown finance TV mystified as to why the market is rallying.

I guess they never heard of cycles.  Oh well...bears had a good day, but that looks to be it.