Seeking the 1770s

With the break of the sp'1837 low, the door is now wide open to much lower levels. Primary downside target zone is 1780/60, which would provide a hugely important hit of the lower weekly bollinger band. If that is achieved, it will give great clarity to the next few months.


sp'weekly7b - H/S doomer-bear outlook

Summary

The above chart remains the ultra doomster outlook.

The H/S is NOT valid in my view, unless we get pretty close, if not an actual hit of the lower weekly bollinger band, currently in the low 1770s.

Any break into the 1760/50s..and I'll have HIGH confidence of the next few months, with broader summer downside to sp'1625/1575.
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Looking ahead

There is nothing scheduled tomorrow.

*there is sig QE-pomo of around $2-2.5bn, which should not concern the equity bears, considering the break of sp'1837 and the VIX 16.00 threshold.
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Riding the wave

I bailed overly early on my index short today, but I still have a nice VIX-long position, and picked up a secondary VIX-long block in the closing minutes. For me, it was the best trading day in quite a while.

More than anything, I want to see the sp'1770s, not for reasons of profit, but because it would give clarity (at least to me) of the next few months.

The aim would be to ride a bounce from the 1770s to around 1850 - for a right shoulder in May, and then a collapse wave sometime in July/August.

I have a lot more to say on that...but for now..lets see if the bears can break 1800..and hit the 1770s within the next 3-4 trading days.

Goodnight from London