Friday 4 April 2014

2pm update - market still weak

US indexes remain weak, especially the R2K and the Nasdaq. However, VIX is only reflecting a market that is 'marginally' concerned, +5% in the low 14s. Metals and Oil are both holding significant gains. Barring a close <sp'1860, the equity bulls haven't that much to be spooked about.


sp'60min


R2K, daily


Summary

R2K sure looks ugly today...and it is closing this week, much in the same lousy state as last week.
--

*I remain content to watch from the sidelines. Call it 'weak minded' or whatever you like, but I'm just plain tired...its been a long week. I'm still kinda recovering from the disappointment of the recent failure to break <1840.
--

Notable weakness: TSLA -5.5%...ugly daily chart


2.07pm... weak weak weak.. sp' losing the 1870s.

Lets be clear...if the weekly 10MA is broken next week (<1850).. then Mr Market is in major trouble, but I'm guessing today is just a retracement.

The VIX is STILL not showing any real kick, and that should concern anyone on the short-side.


2.13pm... Sp' has now swung 28pts from the earlier high, that is pretty impressive.

For the doomer bears out there, they should be seeking a net weekly negative close, ... <1857.. that won't be easy..despite the current price action.


2.30pm... still weak...what will be real interesting is seeing how many of the rats sell into the weekend.

Those already calling a key top should be screaming for a weekly close in the sp'1850s.

R2K, Nasdaq set for a red weekly close, as was the case last week.


2.40pm.. Weekly candle turns BLUE on sp'500....we have provisional warning of trouble...and we're now 33pts below the opening high.


If you see 1862s....that is a key fib' support.. FAIL...and would really open the door to a major train wreck.

This..is starting to get interesting. still not seeing any real power in the VIX though, and that remains my core concern for the bears.


2.47pm.. This down wave is the most powerful we've seen since late January.

Bull maniacs have a bit of a problem right now....current momentum is offering a very weak closing hour...into the 1850s...which will make for net weekly declines.

Momo....carnage!