Volatility knocked lower

With US equities strongly rebounding from the moderate Monday declines, the VIX was naturally knocked considerably lower, settling -11.9% @ 14.10. Near term outlook is for the VIX to remain within the 15/12 zone. VIX 20s look unlikely until at least April.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

As I tried to highlight across yesterday, the opening black candle - seen on the hourly chart, was a real warning to the equity bears.

The daily closing black-fail candle was indeed confirmed today.

Best guess, another two weeks of VIX in the low teens..perhaps briefly breaking into the 12/11s..before the next surge.

The big question I now have is how high will the next multi-week VIX surge be? I'd like to see a break >22, to help offer some initial confirmation that a bigger summer equity correction is coming.
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more later...on the indexes