VIX closes below the open

With equities opening lower on Ukraine concerns, the VIX managed to jump into the 16s. However, with a rather typical latter day equity recovery, the VIX closed below the opening level, settling +14.3% @ 16.00. Near term market outlook though, is obviously somewhat shaky.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Let me be clear... market is highly susceptible to any sporadic 'bad news' from the Ukraine. That sort of thing is of course entirely unpredictable, and can ruin any wave count/pattern, no matter how good the analysis/theory.


Black-fail for the bears

The daily candle on the VIX should concern the bears. A black-fail candle is never a good sign of continued upside. Indeed, with a black candle sitting in the gap zone, I'm highly inclined to believe that is a short term top.

The most bearish aspect though, underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle ticked higher for the fourth consecutive day, and looks set to go positive cycle at the Tuesday open. I guess you could say...bulls..beware!

As ever, there is key resistance at the big 20 threshold, but unless things go 'hot' in the Ukraine, I don't think we can see VIX 20s until April.

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more later..on the indexes