sp'weekly7b
Summary
*the above scenario remains the most bearish outlook, but it requires the market to fall to 1750/30 in the current cycle - which of course assumes 1883 is a key top.
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The threshold for green/blue candle remains sp'1858, and it was indeed pretty exciting to see the market slip (if briefly) to 1850 today.
Equity bears should certainly seek a weekly close <1858, for a second blue candle, which will confirm last weeks provisional 'warning of trouble'.
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The Dow is weak
A bonus chart, especially for those who have more interest in trading the Dow
Dow, weekly
Perhaps most notable about today, the Dow briefly broke the weekly 10MA. First key downside is 15700/600s..so, that is a good 500pts lower. However, the more exciting secondary target is a move back to the Feb' low, in the 15300s.
Looking ahead
We have the usual jobs data, phil fed, home sales, and leading indicators. That should give Mr Market some good reason to move.
*there is sig' QE-pomo of $2-3bn, bears should be somewhat cautious.
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On the short side
Well, I stuck to the original plan, and with no break >1875 after the FOMC announcement, the price action looked okay, and I went short the indexes from 1867.
If equity bears can just break <1834 in the days ahead (not necessarily this week), then the door is open to much lower levels. I realise some are similarly seeking a break to 1810/1790, and maybe that is all we'll get in this down wave.
Regardless, today was pretty good, and I'm quite looking forward to seeing where we close the month/quarter, a mere 8 trading days away.
Goodnight from London