Wednesday, 5 March 2014

Powerfully strong market

It remains a powerfully strong market, but this should come as no surprise to those keeping a broader perspective - via the bigger weekly/monthly index cycles. Market looks set for another 2-3% higher by the next FOMC of March'19. What happens then...could be real interesting.



There really isn't much to add.

We have the fourth consecutive green candle on the weekly 'rainbow' chart, and this market unquestionably remains  .outright bullish.

If the recent down wave - to sp'1737 was a sub'4, then my best guess is that we'll get stuck somewhere in the 1890/1910 area. Monthly charts will be offering 1930/40 by late March, but weekly charts do not support a move that high.


Regardless of how you might want to count the cycle-waves of the past few months, the trend is clearly still to the upside.

Looking ahead

We have quite a busy Wednesday ahead. PMI, ADP jobs, ISM non-manu'.

Probably most important, the Fed beige book. If the market can spin the latest fedspeak as positive 'green shoots of spring' for instance, we'll surely continue to grind higher.

*there is sig' QE-pomo of $2-3bn, bears...beware!

Goodnight from London