Farewell to February

February came to a close with some pretty wild price action in the late afternoon, certainly the strongest closing hour swings we've seen in some months. However, February was definitely a month for the equity bulls. March looks set for higher highs, but by end March, things could look very different indeed.


sp'monthly

sp'weekly8

Summary

So...after the wild closing hour action, here we are..the second month of 2014..complete.

Frankly, for those equity 'doomer bears' out there...still in the market, still surviving, you all deserve a 'warrior medal', simply for lasting this long.

I suppose what could be taken away from today's price action, is how we are seeing increasing market tremors, as a result not of recessionary concerns, but of geo-political ones.

Personally, I'm more concerned about an Asian conflict this summer...China/Japan..but hey, that is a mere hunch..and I sure won't be trading on that kind of thing.
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Holding to weekly'8 outlook

More than anything, I am indeed holding to the original outlook that I first posted last summer. This scenario was always seeking a key intermediate'3 top in spring 2014. Next Monday is March'3rd, and frankly..that is close enough to spring in my view.

Best guess remains, a multi-week high in mid/late March, around the next FOMC of March'19. At that point, I will be ready to launch a major short - my first short side trade in almost 9 months. Indeed, we have just another 13 trading days to wait...in my view.

Goodnight from London
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*the weekend post will be on the world monthly indexes