sp'weekly8
sp'weekly4
Summary
It remains a somewhat scary thought that we will probably have to endure the Yellen until the year 2022.
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As for the charts..
weekly'8 - is something I've broadly held to since last summer, barring a break <1770, I'll again hold to this outlook.
weekly'4 - remains an even broader outlook, and I still think there is a high probability for a major decline this year. Primary downside would be to the old 2000/2007 double top in the upper 1500s. I'm still broadly resigned to further upside into late 2015/early 2016.
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Looking ahead
There is wholesale trade data at 10am, but really, the market will only be concerned with...
...the Yellen. There is a press release of her statement at 8.30am...whilst Yellen should appear before the US house around 10am...and that will likely last at least two hours.
*there is no sig' QE until next Tuesday! Equity bears have a 5 day window, not that I think they'll be able to manage anything much from it.
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The Yellen monster
Since Yellen was lurking in the background last year..and once it became clear that she would be the successor to Bernanke, I've been very concerned. What is my concern about this tiny little old lady? Well, she is one of the most well known supporters of negative interest rates.
The very basis of the modern economy - one that many expect to grow in 'perpetuity', requires capital formation. ALL capital formation is the result of savings. Yet...we have a number of high profile 'experts' not least the new Fed chair, who are open to the notion of negative interest rates, if it might mean people spend more of their savings, helping to boost the consumer based economy.
We can probably all agree there are a great many ongoing serious economic issues, and that another financial crisis will hit within the next few years. The problem is that next time, not only will bank bail-ins be the chosen 'solution', but you can bet the USA, along with the EU would likely move to NIRP - negative interest rate policy, from ZIRP (zero interest rate policy'.
Yeah..NIRP. See 'Financial System's death Knell'.. a good read.
Quite frankly, anyone with savings - of whatever amount, has a great deal to be concerned about, as they watch the Yellen tomorrow morning.
Goodnight from London