Thursday 6 February 2014

3pm update - weak chop into the close

Considering the intraday action, market looks set for minor weak chop into the close..ahead of the key monthly jobs data. There is clear resistance at sp'1770, and equity bears will need a major market scare tomorrow to punch below the recent 1737 low. Primary downside target remains 1710/1690.


sp'60min


vix'60min


Summary

*I have my eyes particularly on the VIX, which often turns before the indexes, but clearly, there is no turn yet. VIX still trying to floor, having almost broken into the 16s, which I'm pretty bemused at.
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At best, equity bears should look for a close in the 1765/60 zone, but <1760 looks just too far down, whilst most remain waiting for jobs data.

So..an hour to go..lets see how many of the rats want to bail ahead of the jobs data. Certainly, considering the recent econ-data, I'd be surprised at a jobs number >100k, never mind the 175k that is consensus..


3.15pm.. Market still stuck, around the 1770 threshold...

TWTR remains under pressure, -22.9%..and in danger of closing under the big $50.00, which was the morning floor.


3.33pm..no doubt many will be super bullish across many sites this evening.  I can only suggest they go stare at a weekly chart.

We have seen the VIX fall from 21 to the 17s in 3 days... and it makes for what is arguably another long-VIX entry level.

One thing is for sure..tomorrow won't likely open where we currently are trading.


3.43pm.. I'm watching IRBT, its not a stock I follow at the balance sheet level, but its seeing a second reversal today..this time..to the downside, but its still around 15% above the opening level of the $32s.

Main market looks like minor chop into the close..as expected.