Monday, 24 February 2014

1pm update - something big on the horizon

US indexes continue to hold significant gains, with the sp'500 set to battle into the 1860s this afternoon..or tomorrow. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, are similarly due to break new historic highs in the days ahead. Metals holding gains, Gold +$12

sp'weekly7c - best 'bear case' scenario


The above chart is unquestionably the most bearish outlook I dare throw out there.

Unlike 2013, we do have a difference this time..with QE being tapered. So long as the Fed don't 'taper the taper' at the next FOMC of March'19th, I think the above scenario has a chance. However, even if the market maxes out, and rolls over in late March, we won't have any initial indication of this bigger bearish scenario until late April at the very earliest.

Anyway, its just an idea..and as day at a time.

As for the post title....

Ghostbuster 'Egon'..aka.. Harold Ramis has died.  see: Chicago Tribune. Not so much my favourite actor, but he certainly was a massive creative influence for many of my favourite movies.

No doubt the 'dogs and cats living together...mass hysteria' moment will also be highlighted by many today.

1.30pm.. market holding the gains..and VIX finally breaks into the 13s.

I'd guess 12s are coming, 11s will be tough to hit though.

Arguably...VIX March good...not enough time. As it is, I do not intend to trade the VIX in the first wave lower in April.

more on that later though...