Lets take a look at six of the US indexes
sp'500
Despite the significant decline on Monday, the net weekly decline was only -0.2%. Indeed, the 10MA is holding as support, and the sp' looks set for the 1860/80 zone by end month. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) ticked lower for a third week..and is currently set to go negative cycle within the next 1-2 weeks.
So..we do have a small warning sign of underlying rally exhaustion, but whilst prices are holding the 10MA...- with 1815 the new floor, the equity bears can't be the least bit confident of a multi-month top...yet.
Best guess remains, sp'1950/2050 by April/May..and then a swift and sig' drop, probably lasting no more than 2-4 months - see price action of summer 1998 and 2011.
Nasdaq Comp'
The tech' managed a very impressive gain of 0.5% this week, and is on track for the 4300s into February. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) ticked a little lower, but still...prices are broadly rising, with good support at the 10MA. I do not expect a new historic high (>5132, March 2000), until next year.
Dow
The mighty Dow clawed a net weekly gain of 21pts this week, and looks to have a baby bull flag on the weekly cycle. There looks to be comfortable upside to the 16700/800s in the next few weeks. The 17000s look very viable by late spring.
NYSE Comp'
The master index slipped a minor -0.3%, but still...the broader up trend continues. Baring a break <10200, the bulls remain firmly in control. There is upside into the 11000s by the late spring, which would likely equate to sp'1950/2050.
R2K
The second market leader climbed a very impressive 0.3% this week, and looks set for the 1200s in Feb/March. The broader up trend from Nov'2012 continues to hold, and this remains a remarkably bullish index. There is absolutely nothing bearish here, and the 1300s look just about viable by late spring..before an intermediate top.
Trans
The old leader slipped -0.5% this week, but did break a new historic high of 7508 - which is 50% higher than a year ago...incredible! The upper bollinger will be offering the 7700s in a few weeks, and the only issue now is whether Trans can hit 8000s..before the next intermediate correction.
Summary
The significant declines of Monday were largely negated for most indexes, and all things considered, the bears had another chance to break the market..and dismally failed. The weekly 10MA continues to act as good support for most indexes.
Yes, the underlying price momentum is weaker than it was, but prices are still generally rising, and there looks to be another 5-7% higher for most indexes by late spring.
Looking ahead
It will be a shortened week, with the US market CLOSED on Monday.
The rest of the week is very much empty of anything major. Only Thursday will see the weekly jobs data, home sales, and leading indicators. Aside from that, there isn't anything of importance, and neither are there any Fed officials on the loose.
There will of course be a truck load of corporate earnings data.
*there is sig' QE-pomo, next Wed' and Friday, both $2-3bn.
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As ever, comments are welcome. I am always looking for new blog/chart links to add, so let me know if you think something should be added.
back on Monday (yes, we're closed then, but there is always something to cover)