sp'weekly4
sp'weekly - poster 'Witold'
Summary
I was kindly sent the second chart earlier today by poster 'Witold', and it has certainly made me reconsider the notion that the top of the current grand wave - from Oct'2011, is already in.
My own original outlook was that we would see 'broad upside' into the late spring (certainly, bulls still have seasonal factors in their favour), with a target zone of sp'1950/2050. However, I could be wrong, and I do genuinely try to keep an open mind, despite having a primary outlook that I'll highlight almost every day.
Is the top in?
I think we'll know..if..and only if, we come VERY close - within 5/10pts..if not actually hitting the lower weekly bollinger band on the current wave.
A closer look...
sp'weekly8
Right now, the lower bollinger is at 1669, and is rising at around 10pts a week. By end February, the lower bol will be around 1750/60.
So..if late Feb..the market is 1750..or lower..then I will have high confidence a top is in. On the flip side..if we're back in the 1800s late Feb/early March, I'll hold to my original outlook..with upside into April/May.
I would suggest anyone also look at the price action from 1998 and 2011, as two examples for what I am seeking.
sp'weekly - 1998 collapse wave
sp'weekly - 2011 collapse wave
That is more than enough to conclude what turned out to be a pretty dynamic week!
Goodnight from London
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The weekend post - late Saturday, will be on the US weekly indexes