Friday 17 January 2014

3pm update - opex chop to conclude the week

The equity market remains in chop mode, which in many ways, has been the case for the past 3 trading weeks. We look set to close somewhere in the sp'1845/40 zone, with VIX in the 12s. Metals are holding gains, with Gold +$10..set for a fourth consecutive weekly gain.


sp'60min


Summary

The little down wave of Monday, where we saw significant index declines of around -1.4%..now seems a long time past.

All those who were touting a break into the mid 1700s have indeed largely given up on that hope. Just reflect how clown finance TV were on Monday afternoon. There were endless analysts appearing, mostly all agree 'oh yeah..here comes the 5-10% correction we've been seeking'.

No. There is simply no downside pressure right now.

Even Mr Permabull, Carboni in his most recent video, correctly highlighted the hugely important issue of capital inflows to the USA. Just where else - other than equities, is all this money going to end up?

When you come to realise..and accept that capital flow issue, another 10% higher in the main market doesn't look too bold a target at all.

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Notable link to see: Next Secular Bull market

For now, I will merely note.. it is somewhat curious to see they too are looking for a summer/autumn major correction..before the nonsense resumes to the upside.


3.11pm.. ohh the drama...market breaks a new low. Algo-bots doing stop run games into the close? Kick the weak bulls out...and then a micro ramp around..3.45pm?

Regardless, its all minor noise..and the hourly MACD cycle is arguably reset for another major move higher next week.


3.27pm.. looks like we have a floor at 1837...now lets see if the bots can run it back into the 1840s.

Notable mover: AAPL, -2.3% @ 541...I'd guess the market makers want to pin at 540.


3.40pm.. so much for the 1837 low.  Anyway..its alll minor noise..back at the close..to wrap up the week.