sp'weekly8 - mid term outlook
sp'weekly'9 - the next fib retrace
Summary
*I remain very unsure as to whether we have seen sub blue 3 (of larger black 3) complete yet.
This remains very much like Feb-April of this year, where the market continually kept seeing micro pull backs, only to relentlessly climb the following week.
Regardless of the day to day noise....the broader trend remains to the upside.
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re: chart weekly'9. I'm very much assuming we won't be going <1575 - the old 2000/2007 top, again. If you assume just a standard move like summer/autumn 2011...and work backwards...that would suggest at least the 1880s before the current multi-month wave is complete.
My target zone for late spring remains sp'1950/2050. We'll just have to see where we are at that time.
Looking ahead
Tuesday will see the last CPI data of the year, along with some housing data. No doubt, there will be some chatter that 'if inflation remains low..then no-taper'.
*next sig' QE is not until Thursday.
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The Schiff at WMT
An interesting little video from Schiff, teasing the WMT shoppers.
Certainly, the average Walmart shopper tends to be fine with the notion of 'higher wages for the poorly paid workers'..except...when the reality of subsequent higher prices comes to mind. Good to see the Schiff outside of the studio :)
Saying what must be said
For many out there, I realise I am becoming one of the more annoying posters out there. After all, I'm not touting the doom that many of you seek to hear. As I've said before though, I ain't playing the game of trying to attract attention by suggesting a collapse wave, for which I no longer believe in.
For those bears with some patience, and perspective on the bigger picture, I will be here..ready...in the late spring. Only then, will it likely be a viable time to start shorting the indexes and being long market volatility.
Indeed, if I'm vaguely correct about the wave count, we should see a somewhat strong down move in late Jan/Feb..only to see the bears get whipsawed again, with a further ramp across March/April.
Just another four or five months to go.
Goodnight from London