Dow, monthly2, rainbow
Dow, daily
Summary
So..the Dow was the big leader today, and a fair few - not least those on clown finance TV, were bemused at the discrepancies between the various indexes. Yet..really, it is arguably just a case of one index playing catchup to the others. It certainly happens from time to time.
Bullish into late 2015/16
Earlier this spring, Trans'7000s looked an insanely bullish call (lead by Carboni). Yet..here we are, already hitting the 7100s, with 7200/7300s likely within this month..or next. The following is just one of many counts that could be applied..if you assume 'broad upside for another two years or so'.
Trans, monthly'3, rainbow
Regardless of how you want to count it, current trend is clearly higher, but of course..at some point we're going to see a multi-month down wave. I'm guessing that will begin late spring 2014. The only issue is where do we floor. 5500/5000 seems viable...if briefly.
The really big question though..how high will this nonsense peak on a multi-year basis? 9k looks very reasonable, but perhaps the grand top will be around 10k?
Looking ahead
For the mainstream cheer leaders on clown finance TV, it will be the biggest day of the year...the Twitter IPO. No doubt that will be get blanket coverage tomorrow morning, and probably much of the day. The only issue is does the stock open sharply higher...and collapse...or..will there be enough bull maniacs to push the stock higher across the day. Considering the main market...I'll guess the latter.
Besides Twitter, there are the usual weekly jobs, another reading for Q3 GDP - market is seeking a revision down to 2.0%. No doubt, any reading of 2.1% or better, and Mr Market will find an excuse to rally on 'economic recovery'. There is also consumer credit data in the late afternoon.
As ever..beware of a few Fed people on the loose, whose comments might cause some market swings. In particular..Dudley...tomorrow afternoon.
*next sig' QE is on Friday.
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A pretty tiresome day...and I shall bid you a...
Goodnight from London