Friday, 20 September 2013

Volatility fails to climb

Despite the main indexes all closing lower, the VIX remained very subdued, and settled -0.3% @ 13.12, - with an intra-day low of 12.52, and a peak of 13.47. Across the week, the VIX declined 7.3%. Near term trend looks bullish for equities, and VIX looks set to remain low for some weeks.


VIX'60min


VIX'daily3


VIX;'weekly


Summary

This remains an almost entirely fearless market. Once again we have a VIX that was very weak into the weekend. This was despite persistent equity weakness, with the Dow -185pts.

If sp' can battle into the 1730s next week (which is my target), then VIX will be in the low 12s..if not the 11s.

Anyone with targets of sp'1800/1900s late 2013/early 2014, should ask themselves the question, where will VIX be then? Are we going to see single digit VIX before the current grand cycle is complete ? Considering the QE, and the continued mainstream delusion, I have to think there is a very high chance.
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more later..on the indexes