Saturday, 7 September 2013

Seeking major downside next week

The bulls have had a seven day wave from sp'1627 to 1664. Today's price action, and closing daily candle are highly suggestive that today was a key reversal/cycle peak. Bears should be seeking new lows <1627 next week, and that should open up the 1580/70s by the FOMC of Sept'18




Just a few charts to wrap up the week

First, daily4b, we might be dealing with a failure at the 50 day MA - seen across multiple indexes today. The break into the 1660s was above the 38% fib level, but still, the daily closing candle was very bearish, and was a good example of a 'hanging man candle' - see here for details.

From red to blue

The weekly close of a blue candle on the 'rainbow' chart is a disappointment. Yet, the weekly close was at least below the important 10MA of 1670.

For next week..the lower weekly bollinger - the target I've been highlighting for weeks, will probably jump to around 1585 at the Monday open.

On any bearish outlook, I find a hit of the June 1560 'overly difficult'. Perhaps, we'll put in a slightly higher low in the 1570s? That was actually the case in early June 2011 - see following...

sp'2011 historic, weekly, rainbow

The June low - right side of the HEAD, was about 11pts higher than the left shoulder low of mid March. As ever, all cycles are unique...but I remain keeping this one in mind. Without question though, I need to see a hit of the lower weekly bol', to keep the analogy valid.

It was an interesting week, but next week should be one for the bears. I've made my move, am heavy short across the weekend, via VIX-long. Seeking an initial exit in the 18/19s, but looking for the low 20s on a secondary wave higher.

Goodnight from London

*next main post - late Saturday, probably on the US weekly index charts.