Saturday, 28 September 2013

Moderate weekly declines for the bears

US equities closed the week on a moderately bearish note, with the sp' managing to hold the 1690s. Across the week, the sp' declined around -1.1%, which is clearly nothing for the doomer bears to get overly excited about. Broader mid-term trend remains outright bullish.

sp'weekly2 - rainbow, 2yr

sp'daily3 - fib retrace levels


Clearly, a week for the bears, although the declines aren't significant, and this could easily just be a very minor retrace, before the next wave higher.

It should be noted though, with the break <1691, the door is open to a further moderate wave lower to the 1680/75 zone, where the 50% fib retrace is, along with the 50 day MA.

So, at worse, bulls look vulnerable to a further 1% lower, before renewed upside in October. Considering the style of price action this past week, i just can't see the bears managing any daily closes in the 1670s, never mind taking out the recent key low of 1627.

For the moment, the mid-term trend remains outright bullish. For those who are seeking much lower levels, first target should be a break below the weekly 10MA...into the mid 1670s.

If the market can close in the 1670s next Friday, then I'll be open to a much more bearish outlook this autumn, but really, I find that hard to believe considering the ongoing QE.

Goodnight from London
*next main post, late Saturday, which will be covering - in more detail, the US weekly indexes.