sp'weekly8 - bullish outlook
Summary
So, the sp'500 gained almost 2% this week. Even the Friday closing minutes were a touch bullish.
Last weeks blue candle on the weekly 'rainbow' chart was indeed the initial warning, and this weeks green candle confirms the turn.
Bears had their chance last week...and failed. This week confirmed it.
The turn is in..how high?
Frankly, I am very disappointed at the lack of power on the bearish side. This is the second weekly multi-week down cycle in the past four months where the lower weekly bollinger was not hit. It remains a fiercely bullish market, with equity bears that haven't seen any decent downside action since last November.
How high in this new up wave? There are plenty out there touting 1750/1800 or so, and I'm inclined to at least agree with that.
Thing is, why would we stop in the mid 1700s? So long as the debt ceiling doesn't turn into another farce - as July/August 2011, the market should be able to rally into Christmas..and all the way into spring 2014.
The following outlines the 'best bull case' for the next few years..
sp'weekly4 - hyper-bullish outlook
For the doomer bears out there, the above chart is of course sickening. I'm sure not happy with it either.
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Have a good weekend
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*next main post, late Saturday, probably on the World monthly indexes