Thursday 5 September 2013

2pm update - not getting involved

The market is comfortably holding moderate gains, and the smaller cycles are offering slight upside into the close. Bears have seemingly no real reason to be shorting ahead of the jobs data. The market mood simply appears to be one of 'hey..its all fine again'.


sp'60min



vix'60min


Summary

Suffice to say, the mood at the casino table looks utterly complacent..and there simply doesn't seem any point in taking new short positions.

Say we close 1660...it will only take a mere Friday up move of 1.25% to hit the big 1680 level.

I will note, if we do somehow spike into the 1680s - whether tomorrow..or early next week ..I will be hitting buttons.

As an options trader, I'm just watching the decay on the VIX call chain.

The VIX calls I sold last Friday are down 60% in just over 3 trading days.  if sp'1680s..they'll fall another 20/25%. What a thought!
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2.34pm...nothing  has changed..market still looks vulnerable for minor upside into the close, with a very real risk of a leap in the 1670s tomorrow..even 1680 on a 'isn't the economy doing great!' spike.

VIX looks like it merely wants to melt lower into the close...15.50s is the target for today.