sp'monthly3, rainbow
sp'weekly8 - mid term bullish outlook
Summary
Well that's it for another month, it was certainly another one for the bulls to tout as theirs.
Despite the monthly gains, the indexes are clearly struggling, we have been stuck just under sp'1700 for around two weeks.
I am holding to my original best guess, that the market has another 2% or so of upside. With the big monthly jobs data this Friday, I still think there is a chance for the bulls to smite the bears one more time, before the next multi-week down cycle.
I will look to short the indexes somewhere in the sp'1710/20s, likely no earlier than late Friday morning, but possibly as late as early next week.
A Doomer can dream..right?
With the futures already sp +8pts (as of 10pm EST), I thought I'd throw this chart out there again. Its just an idea for later in the autumn.
Say the market drops 'swiftly' into early September, then a bounce...but one that is cut short if the Fed reduce the QE - at the FOMC of Sept'18.
sp'weekly9c - 'best bear case'
Unquestionably, we are due a multi-month down cycle, at least something in the style of summer/autumn 2011. The disturbing thing - at least from a permabear perspective, even the sp'1450s by year end would do no damage to the primary up trend.
Looking ahead
There is a little array of econ-data tomorrow, weekly jobless, ISM manu', and construction data.
*there is mid-sized QE-pomo of $3-4bn....bears beware!
--
So...that's it for July...I shall hope Aug/September have at least some reasonable price volatility, if only for 'entertainment' reasons, never mind for actual trading purposes.
Goodnight from London