sp'daily5
VIX'daily'3
Summary
A very quiet day in market land, lowest volume of the year (probably). It has to be asked, why would tomorrow be any different?
The original outlook was looking for a multi-week up cycle to max out..this week..and yet, now that we're here..I'm having my doubts. I can't think of anything to motivate the market lower, other than simple exhaustion, but that's never been a good reason across the past four years.
For the moment, I'm very cautious, but I will carefully consider an index short, if we enter the sp'1715-25 zone tomorrow..or later in the week.
Seven weeks up...how many more?
It has to be asked, since its August - a typically quiet month in the market, why would the current rally end now? Anyway, a particularly bearish outlook is the following...
sp'weekly7
Primary downside target - for September (certainly not this month!) is the lower weekly bollinger, currently @ 1535. By late Sept' that will likely be close to sp'1600. Frankly, its going to be damn tough for the main market to be trading <1600 by the start of October.
Looking ahead
Again, there really isn't any sig' econ-data tomorrow to motivate the market.
However, there is a QE-pomo of $5bn, and that is indeed something the bears should be very mindful of.
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That's all for today.
Goodnight from an overly sleepy London