Monday, 5 August 2013

Daily Wrap - its quiet out there

The main indexes closed moderately lower, with the sp' slipping just 2.5pts to 1707. The VIX again failed to hold earlier minor upside, closing -1.1% @ 11.84. The market is now in its seventh week to the upside, from the sp'1560 low.




A very quiet day in market land, lowest volume of the year (probably). It has to be asked, why would tomorrow be any different?

The original outlook was looking for a multi-week up cycle to max out..this week..and yet, now that we're here..I'm having my doubts. I can't think of anything to motivate the market lower, other than simple exhaustion, but that's never been a good reason across the past four years.

For the moment, I'm very cautious, but I will carefully consider an index short, if we enter the sp'1715-25 zone tomorrow..or later in the week.

Seven weeks many more?

It has to be asked, since its August - a typically quiet month in the market, why would the current rally end now?  Anyway, a particularly bearish outlook is the following...


Primary downside target - for September (certainly not this month!) is the lower weekly bollinger, currently @ 1535. By late Sept' that will likely be close to sp'1600. Frankly, its going to be damn tough for the main market to be trading <1600 by the start of October.

Looking ahead

Again, there really isn't any sig' econ-data tomorrow to motivate the market.

However, there is a QE-pomo of $5bn, and that is indeed something the bears should be very mindful of.

That's all for today.

Goodnight from an overly sleepy London