Saturday, 31 August 2013

Another week for the bears

A weak end to the week for US equities, and indeed, August as a whole saw some rather interesting declines across all indexes. With the monthly charts starting to turn lower, the equity bears are starting to build some downside momentum for the coming autumn.



For the weekly rainbow chart we actually managed to close with a red candle, the first since mid June. The current target remains unchanged, I'm seeking a hit of the lower weekly bollinger...currently 1563, although I expect that to jump to around 1570 at the Tuesday open - for statistical reasons.

Monthly declines

I'll do a full monthly report this weekend, but suffice to say, we did indeed see some interesting declines, although the broader trend is still unquestionably to the upside. The closing blue candle is a initial sign of weakness, but we've seen plenty of blue candles in the past fail to have follow through.

sp'monthly3b - things the bears need

Bears should be seeking a hit of the monthly 10MA, currently 1557, but that will also likely jump into the 1570s at the Tuesday open.

In many ways, the 1570s look a very obvious..and natural target for the first half of September, before the next rally. The only issue is whether the next rally puts in the first critical lower high..<1709.

*I exited VIX-long near the close, but will seek an index short/VIX long, sometime next Tuesday. I'll actually be hoping the market manages a brief 0.5% gain to start next week, if only to get a better short-entry level.

Well, its been a long'll end things there.

Goodnight from London

*next main post, late Saturday, probably on the US monthly indexes