Saturday, 17 August 2013

A second week for the bears

The bears managed to keep the market under control into the Friday close, with the sp' declining by 35pts (2.1%) across the week. 1709 would appear to be a confirmed near term top, with a downside target of the 1575/50s this September.

sp'weekly9 - general outlook, with fibs


So, the bears actually managed to control the market for a second week. Even so, the VIX is still at a very low level, and the trading volume/activity remains very low, but is 'sleepy August'.

In theory, this Blue IV' wave should be a little more powerful than the recent sub'4 wave (of May/June). Yet, at best, bears will surely get stuck around the mid 1500s.

With the rising 200 day MA - set to be in the 1570s in mid-September, the bears are going to find it really tough to go much lower than that.

A note on yields

In the scheme of things, bond yields/interest rates remain bizarrely (and stupidly) low, and I do find it laughable how many in the mainstream are getting twitchy about the 'big 3%'.

10yr, monthly'2

On any basis, we have a clear technical breakout above the important 2.75 level, and we look set to battle higher. Target is somewhere in the 3.25/50 zone.

Unlike many doomer bears out there, I don't believe yields in the 3s..or even 4s are going to 'wreck the recovery'...not that I believe there is a 'real' recovery going on anyway.

**Coming in spring 2014....BEARS, although I don't think it includes anything related to the equity doomer bears...

Goodnight from London

*next main post, late Saturday, on the US weekly indexes