Tuesday, 30 July 2013

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes closed moderately lower, with the sp -6pts @ 1685. The two market leaders - Trans/R2K, saw much more significant declines of 1.1% and 0.75% respectively. Near term outlook is still seeking one final minor wave higher, into the sp'1710/20s.


sp'daily5



R2K



Trans


Summary

The smaller waves are always a bit of a nightmare to work out, but the daily sp'500 chart is still holding what appears to be a wave'4 'bull flag'.

I have to guess the market will still rally into the sp'1700s...and probably get stuck somewhere in the 1720s.

A brief spike on FOMC Wednesday looks very viable, especially if the market can close back in the upper 1690s tomorrow.


Market leaders already maxed out?

Both the Transports and the Rus'2000 indexes look especially weak, and it is entirely possible they have already maxed out. If the main 'headline' indexes - of the sp/dow/nasdaq, rally across Tue/Wed, it is probably saw to assume the Trans/R2K will also rally, but they sure won't be breaking new highs.

a little more later....