sp'weekly8 - mid term bullish outlook
Summary
So, another week for the bears to forget. It was looking pretty good late Wednesday afternoon after the FOMC minutes, with an opportunity for a retrace down to the 1630s, but no...the Bernanke put a stop to that.
With the Thursday gap higher, it is again clear that shorting this market is a waste of time and effort, never mind the actual financial costs. Near term trend looks bullish at least for another few weeks.
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Rather than just dwell on the past though, I will note the following bearish outlook, but I have very low confidence in this right now.
sp'weekly9b - doomer outlook for the autumn
This outlook assumes a peak in August, perhaps as high as sp'1740/60, and then a wave lower - which in theory should be stronger in size/power, than (sub' black 4).
The above outlook assumes at least a mid-term high in August, with some kind of 'multi-month downside', on the scale of summer 2011. Even then, the issue is, if QE continues, how are the bears going to sustain any consistent and strong downside?
Even if we hit the lower weekly bollinger on the next multi-week down cycle - which seems viable no earlier than late August/early September (somewhere in the low 1600s), I would still be very cautious of this scenario.
Monthly trends continue to push higher, and as we've seen time and again since the March'09 lows, the down cycles are generally weak, and never last very long.
That's all for today, and this trading week. Goodnight from London
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*next main post, late Saturday, on the US weekly index charts.