Volatility fractionally higher

With the main indexes seeing some moderate swings after the FOMC announcement, the VIX similarly saw some chop, and only managed to close +0.45% @ 13.45. Near term trend remains to the upside, but even VIX 15s look difficult to close above any time soon.


VIX'60min

VIX' daily3

Summary

Certainly, this afternoon was pretty interesting for a mere market spectator.

Yet, the swings are still relatively minor, and the VIX remains at what is historically a bizarrely low level.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is now positive cycle for the first time in over four weeks. The cycle is still turning back toward the equity bears, even if the indexes are still within 1% of their recent historic highs.
-

I've no doubt the VIX will at least get into the upper teens in late August, but consecutive weekly closes >20 - which is when things would start to get interesting, still look unlikely.
--

more later..on those choppy indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes saw some serious post-FOMC chop, with a spike to sp'1698, but then seeing a moderate reversal to 1685. The sp' closed the day..flat @ 1686. Across the month, the sp +79pts..around 5%.


sp'60min

Summary

Fun huh?

I will merely hold to original outlook, I still feel the bears are largely powerless right now, and will look for an index short in the 1710/20s, which still seems viable within a few days.

No doubt many bears will be excited at this afternoons action, but yours truly..is just not buying it.
--

bits and pieces across the evening

3pm update - a close in the sp'1700s

The bulls look set for a close in the sp'1700s, after almost two weeks of waiting. The bears remain powerless, and with the Fed decided to do nothing, the market looks set for the 1710/20s. Metals remain generally weak, whilst Oil is soaring...+2.0%


sp'5min

Summary

It remains a nasty market for the bears...as expected.

--
I am VERY content to sit on the sidelines, and wait for an index re-short in the sp'1715/25 area..which seems viable later this Friday.

2pm update - more fed-speak nonsense

Time for another press release from the money printing machine of the United States of America. The main equity indexes look set to continue further gains into the sp'1700s, at least for a few more days. Metals remain weak, whilst Oil is looking surprisingly strong.


sp'daily5

Summary

Well, lets see what the printing maniacs have lined up..I'm guessing nothing....and 'nothing' is precisely what Mr Market will be looking for.
--

No clown finance TV for me today, 

1pm update - awaiting the Fed

The main indexes are still holding moderate gains, but Mr Market is clearly waiting on confirmation from the Fed that the QE fuel will not be reduced until at least mid September. Metals remain very weak, in stark contrast to a rather strong Oil, +1.5%


sp'60min

Summary

I still find it hard to believe the market is not going to break into the 1700s in the current 5 week long up wave.

I sure ain't shorting the indexes at these levels, there is simply too much risk of a further 2% or so of upside.

--
First of the $38 - IPO level, sellers have arrived in FB

Still, from a short-side perspective, the stock is surrounded by so much hysteria, best left alone.

12pm update - still broadly climbing

The main indexes are holding gains, although nothing too significant so far today. The sp +7pts @ 1693, having hit 1696. Gold remains very weak, -$18, whilst Oil is recovering from recent daily losses, and is +1.2%. The FOMC announcement is just two hours away.


sp'60min

Summary

I've no doubt some will be calling a top ahead of the FOMC, but really, it'd be kinda surprising if we see a reversal from the mere 1690s.

Daily charts are offering the 1715/20 area, although that now seems more likely at the end of this week.

*metals sure look weak, and it would appear that after trying to break old broken support, they are beginning a new multi-week down cycle.

--
VIX update from Mr T.



time for lunch!

11am update- bears on the run

As expected, the market is inexorably climbing higher again, and the sp'1700s are a mere 4pts away. The 1710/20s look a very viable target within the next 1-3 trading days. Metals remain very weak, with Gold now -$16.


sp'60min

GLD, daily

Summary

There is no reason to believe 1700s aren't viable in the next hour or two. Bulls are in control...and what bears are out there, are simply seeing their short-stops triggered.

--
So..lets see how high the maniacs can drive it today.

I'll only consider an index short late today..if the market is at least >1710.

*will be interesting to see how rattled the cheer leaders on clown finance TV get, in the next multi-week down cycle.

10am update - morning gains

With the econ-data coming in generally better than the market was expecting, the market is managing to hold moderate gains. Metals have snapped to the downside, Gold -$13, and now looking very weak for the days ahead.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

*Chicago PMI: 52.3, not exactly 'inspiring' for the market, but still, its not recessionary.
---

I'm increasingly thinking the fifth sub' wave will drag into this Friday..if not early next week.

In the last cycle to 1687, the market hit the upper bollinger on the daily chart before the swift intra-day reversal.

Today, the upper bol is around 1719, certainly..a fair way higher from current levels.
--

For the moment, I'm in no hurry, not least with the FOMC announcement later today, and the big jobs data on Friday.

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning, futures are a touch higher, sp+2pts, we're set to open at 1687. Today is probably the best chance for the start of a sub'5 wave to the upside..breaking into the sp'1700s. Metals are mixed in early trading, Oil looks set to be moderately higher.


sp'60min3 - broad overview

Summary

 *ADP jobs:  200k, vs 179exp.

GDP..1.7%, vs 1.1%.... and thats on the new style of calculation
Chicago PMI
--

On top of the data..we have the FOMC of course, but thats not until 2pm.
-

I am on the sidelines, seeking an index-short, but probably not today, I want an entry preferably in the 1715/25 zone.


UPDATE 9.39am.. sp'1692...we're all set for the 1700s today.

If we somehow break to the 1710s, thats gong to be awfully tempting to short.

Another Fed day

Wednesday is going to be a particularly interesting day. Not only is there ADP jobs, Q2 GDP, and Chicago PMI data, but there is an FOMC announcement at 2pm. Considering the recent price action/waves, a further 2% of equity upside looks very likely in the immediate term.


 sp'weekly8 - mid term bullish outlook

Summary

The weekly candle did actually flip to green earlier today with the break into the 1690s again, but closed blue.

You can see that there is now a very high likelihood of the market seeing some rather classic bearish divergences - seen across a great many indexes, in the coming days.

Whether we max out this week, or next..really doesn't seem to matter. I'm holding to the original outlook, a cycle peak in the low sp'1700s, before a rather swift decline across Aug/September, back into the 1500s.


Copper is still weak

Whilst equities continue their very broad upward climb, Copper is again seeing renewed weakness. Wednesday is the end of the month, and a monthly close <$3 would merit some serious attention.


Copper, monthly

A few consecutive daily closes <$3, and the deflationary doomers can again start to wonder if they weren't right all along. Interesting confirmation might come, if WTIC Oil can similarly close under the important $100 threshold, although that doesn't look likely this week.


The Wednesday trading plan

Many out there (not least Mr 'Permabull' Carboni) generally have a 'no-trade the fed-day' rule. I'm increasingly one of them, not least with the sometimes wild price gyrations in the immediate hour after an FOMC announcement.

Right now, I'd only feel 'marginally comfortable' shorting the indexes from the sp'1705/10 level. I'd really have no concerns from the 1720s, but that seems out of range tomorrow.

Perhaps...the market will complete the current sub'5 later this week...on the Friday jobs data?

So..yes..as it is, I don't really expect to be shorting the main indexes tomorrow, certainly not <1700. After all, if there is one thing the bears should have learnt in the past four years, when it comes to shorting the QE-fuelled market..there really isn't any need to hurry.

*Ohh, and as for what the Fed might do tomorrow, baring a complete end to the QE-pomo program, this market will surely battle broadly higher into spring 2014, if not a couple of years beyond that. That is indeed...not the best of thoughts to end the day.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The bears tried to knock the market lower, but once again, the bulls managed something of a latter day recovery, with all indexes closing moderately higher. Near term trend remains to the upside, and the sp'1710/20s look very viable in the immediate term.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

A relatively quiet market day, where the bears again displayed a simple lack of power. The underlying pressure remains to the upside, and bulls are still managing to generally negate every single little down cycle.

SP'500 looks set to break into the 1700s this week, if not tomorrow. With the FOMC, and an array of econ-data due Wednesday, tomorrow will be as good a chance as any.

--
*I remain on the sidelines, and will be seeking a short of the main indexes, but preferably in the sp'1715/25 zone.
--
a little more later...

Volatility unchanged

Whilst the main indexes managed very slight gains, the VIX closed exactly unchanged @ 13.39. Near term momentum is increasingly turning toward the equity bears. However, the indexes still look vulnerable for one final lurch to the upside, into the sp'1700s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

So...a flat VIX, but the underlying pressure is indeed turning back toward the equity bears.

The MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle ticked upward for the sixth consecutive day, and looks set to go positive cycle at the Wednesday open.

Note the upper bollinger on the daily cycle, which is falling fast, it will be in the 14s by the end of this week..and that will prove to be a tough target for the bears to consistantly close above.
-

more later...on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes all closed with moderate gains, with the sp +0.6pts @ 1685. The Trans/R2K indexes closed with gains of around 0.25%. Precious metals were weak across the day, closing moderately lower. Oil was weak, -1.2%.


sp'60min

Summary

Another day of frustration for the bears, with the bulls again managing to hold the 1680s.

--
bits and pieces across the evening

3pm update - bears at high risk

Wednesday is not only FOMC day, but also Q2 GDP (with revisions due, all the way back to the dinosaur era), and ADP jobs data. Considering the daily and weekly charts, bears are at very high risk of having to absorb another 2% of equity upside.


sp'15min

sp'60min

Summary

The smaller 5/15min cycles appear to have floored, just a touch above the semi-important 1680 level.

Best guess...market soars tomorrow, whether on the econ-data..or the FOMC press release.

--

I am more than content to be on the sidelines ahead of such an imminent threat.

2pm update - mild bearish hysteria

With a small snap of 5pts, down to sp'1682, some on the bearish side are getting overly hysterical again, about what is a very minor decline. Importantly, the inv. H/S level of 1680 is comfortably holding. Bulls should be content with any close back in the 1690s.


sp'15min

Summary

There is no clear turn/floor yet...but I have to guess 1680 will hold...and this was merely another cruel tease to the bears....before Mr Market snaps to the upside tomorrow - whether on econ-data in early morning..or the later FOMC announcement.
--

I have absolutely zero interest in chasing this lower, market still looks okay for at least one major wave higher.

--

1pm update - afternoon mini ramp?

The smaller 5/15min index cycles look floored around sp'1688. A Tuesday close in the mid 1690s will easily open up the 1710/20s for Wednesday. Market looks set to smack the bears..before the next multi-week down cycle.


sp'60min

Summary

Again, its a relatively quiet day..Mr Market is merely waiting for the econ-data and FOMC tomorrow.

I'm holding to the original outlook, the micro-wave count is suggestive of a peak late tomorrow, although it has to be said, if we're 'only' in the 1705/10 zone tomorrow afternoon, I'll be somewhat hesitant about shorting this nonsense.

Daily/weekly charts are very much offering the 1715/25 area, and that would be a far better short entry.
--

*I am entirely on the sidelines, and seeing a major re-short in the indexes, preferably in the 1715/25 area..possibly tomorrow.
--


1.36pm..hmm, a little wave lower, but still, the 1680 level is holding, and even if that goes, the bears really need <1676.

12pm update - pressure is still upward

The main indexes are moderately higher, and the bulls are making a play to take out the sub'3 high of sp'1698. With the FOMC, GDP Q2, and ADP jobs data tomorrow, the market is going to make a sharp move...based on the trend..it'll likely be to the upside.


sp'daily5

Summary

Daily charts are still looking pretty bullish, especially for tomorrow.

A break >1698, will open up the 1710/20s.

Right now, I would feel comfortable shorting the market anywhere in the 1715/25 area.

I am trying to keep in mind that its possible the sub'5 won't complete until the tail end of this week, or even early next.

As ever..one day at a time.
--

*I was kicked out of a lousy SLV-long position very early in the morning. The near term outlook for the metals remains a bit of a mess. Gold and Silver remain stuck right under the May/June support floor.
--

VIX update from Mr T.



time for lunch

11am update - market wants to battle higher

Despite the weakness out there - apparent across the last two weeks, the market still looks set to go a little higher. Metals remain weak, along with Oil -1.1%. A 'brief' move into the sp'1700s still looks viable on FOMC Wednesday.


sp'60min

Summary

Not much to add, its a relatively quiet morning, but pressure still seems to be on the upside.

After all, bears are only able to ever manage moderate declines before the market battles back.
--

VIX is now red..although the 11s now seem unlikely, even if low sp'1700s.
--

FB continues on its quest to claw back to the IPO $38 level.

Arguably a hysteria stock, to be left alone, and merely watched for entertainment purposes.

10am update - choppy gains

The main market is holding moderate gains, but its a real choppy mess right now, and the bulls actually look in danger of seeing the indexes turn red later this morning. Metals are on the slide, Gold -$9, Oil is -0.7%, with the daily charts for both looking especially weak.


sp'60min

Summary

So, a small jump to 1693, but the market is looking a bit shaky.

Baring a break <1680, I have to hold to the original outlook, which is still calling for higher levels into tomorrow.
-

As ever...thats what trading stops are for.
--

Complete loss of support in POT, MOS, and SQM

POT, daily

Due to some trading deal, Mr Market is assuming prices are set to tumble. Argubly, those 3 stocks are to be left alone, but no doubt..knife catchers galore in there this morning.

-

As for SLV, I got the kick...@ 18.99.

 
If that was the low of the week....well, I won't be surprised. Regardless, I don't like the break of channel, and the loss of the 19s.

So, I'm out of that mess, and back on the sidelines. Hmmm

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +4pts, we're set to open around 1689. Precious metals are slightly weak, Oil -0.7%  Bulls look set to push things higher today..and tomorrow, not least if the market likes the econ/earnings data.


sp'60min

Summary

The sp'1700s still look viable, possible even later today, but more likely early tomorrow.

Mr Market will now be almost entirely focused on the nonsense that is the FED-speak. How many times will the Bernanke mention 'easing' or 'taper'? After all, the Fed is now the foundation of the US economy.

--
*SLV looks flat, so I'll still (to my surprise) be in my long-Silver trade at the open, hmm

Notable movers..Agriculture ... MOS, POT, and SQM

A few more days

After a five week ramp, the sp'500 is 125pts above the 1560 low. A few more days of upside into the Wednesday FOMC might be all the bulls have left. A significant decline after the targeted 1710/20s, down to the 1600/1550 area looks viable into September.


sp'weekly8 - mid term bullish outlook

Summary

So...a minor victory for the bears to start the week, but the declines were relatively minor, even for the more unstable/volatile market leaders - Trans/R2K.

Bears even have the weekly 'rainbow' charts offering the first blue candle, although that will probably turn back to green if sp'1710/20s later this week.


Best case for the doomer bears

The following is the most bearish outlook I can come up with, across the rest of this year/early 2014. Essentially, a down wave much like summer/early autumn 2011.


sp'weekly9c

Of course, if QE is 'largely' continuing this autumn - as I expect, such a scenario will be next to impossible to achieve. The style of the decline is pretty straightforward, and for the more conservative traders out there, they would wait until sub' wave'2 completes. Anyway, its just something I will keep in mind across the next 2-4 months.


Looking ahead

There are a few pieces of minor econ-data tomorrow, case-Shiller housing, and consumer confidence.

*there is no significant QE-pomo Tuesday...and absolutely zero on Wednesday.
--

I am currently still long via SLV (annoyingly underwater), and seeking to switch to shorting the main indexes sometime this Wednesday.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes closed moderately lower, with the sp -6pts @ 1685. The two market leaders - Trans/R2K, saw much more significant declines of 1.1% and 0.75% respectively. Near term outlook is still seeking one final minor wave higher, into the sp'1710/20s.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

The smaller waves are always a bit of a nightmare to work out, but the daily sp'500 chart is still holding what appears to be a wave'4 'bull flag'.

I have to guess the market will still rally into the sp'1700s...and probably get stuck somewhere in the 1720s.

A brief spike on FOMC Wednesday looks very viable, especially if the market can close back in the upper 1690s tomorrow.


Market leaders already maxed out?

Both the Transports and the Rus'2000 indexes look especially weak, and it is entirely possible they have already maxed out. If the main 'headline' indexes - of the sp/dow/nasdaq, rally across Tue/Wed, it is probably saw to assume the Trans/R2K will also rally, but they sure won't be breaking new highs.

a little more later....

Volatility somewhat higher

With the main indexes closing moderately lower, the VIX managed a closing gain of 5.3% @ 13.39, having spiked to 13.86. Underlying momentum is swinging back to the equity bears, but a further VIX wave lower looks likely..which would make for some interesting divergences.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

The hourly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is set to go negative at the Tuesday open, and that sure doesn't bode well for the equity bears across tomorrow.

Similarly, the daily charts saw the VIX close with a black-fail candle, and those are very often warnings of further equity upside.
--

more later..on the indexes

Closing Brief

The main indexes closed with very minor declines, the sp -6pts @ 1685. The two market leaders, Trans/R2K saw more significant falls of 1.1% and 0.7% respectively. Despite the declines, market still looks set for further upside across Tue/Wednesday.


sp'60min

Summary

Not the most exciting of days, indeed, after the late morning low in the low 1680s, it turned out rather dull.

Yes, the VIX spiked 8%, but that still makes for a VIX in the 13s. Equity bears really can't get the least bit confident until VIX 15/16s.

*The bears do have something of a window though, in that there is no sig' QE across Tue/Wed.

--

the usual bits and pieces across the evening

3pm update - melt into the close

With the bears exhausting their power at sp'1681, the bulls are seeing the usual latter day recovery/rally. A close in the 1690s looks very viable, and that will open up the still elusive 1700s early Tuesday. Oil is marginally red, along with the metals.


sp'60min

Summary

All things considered, we're more likely to rally..than slip into the close.

Bears had their chance, and instead of breaking back into the 1670s, they've left a rather clear inverse H/S formation, which is highly suggestive of the 1700s tomorrow.


SLV is still weak, but holding within a broader up channel.

*I've a 'last line in the sand' long-stop at 19.00.

Best case upside into late Tue/early Wed' 19.75/20.25
--

2pm update - weekly charts looking tired

The main indexes are holding moderate declines, and despite an expected little more upside in the near term, the weekly charts are starting to looking particularly tired. If sp'1710/20s are hit later this week, the market will be well over-extended.


sp'weekly8

Summary

A long week ahead, but for the bears out there, the current candle on the rainbow chart is indeed a blue one, the first bit of weakness since the June'24 low - as seen across a number of indexes.

I'm still assuming a little more upside..before the reversal though.

Plenty of econ-data this week to give the market an excuse to ramp, never mind the 'we won't taper' FOMC.


AAPL, nothing bearish in the near term...

Indeed, a hit/test of the 200 day MA in the mid 470s looks a given.

1pm update - latter day recovery

The main indexes are still moderately lower, but the bears look powerless to muster any more downside today..or even tomorrow. A possible inv. H/S formation is offering the low sp'1700s within the immediate term.


sp'60min

Summary

Not much to add, aside that it does look we'll rally into the close. Best case for the bulls....a Tuesday gap higher..right into the 1700s, which will open up 1720s for FOMC Wednesday.
--

VIX update from Mr T.



Clearly, very few are seeing imminent threat of significant VIX upside.

12pm update - minor down cycle complete

The bears look exhausted after another minor down cycle. Once again, we look set for latter day ramp, with the mid sp'1690s very much viable at the close. Metals and Oil are recovering, and look set to close moderately green. VIX appears to have maxed out at 13.86


sp'15min

sp'60min

Summary

A rather clear inverse H/S (not labelled) on the 15min cycle. Bulls merely needed to hold 1680..and so far, looks okay.

I've added a micro-count to the hourly charts, seeking upside into at least early Wednesday.

Target remains sp'1710/20s.
---

time to shop...and then lunch!

11am update - bears are still weak

The market is holding moderate declines, but like the previous one thousand trading days, there is little reason why the bulls won't manage a latter day rally. Precious metals and Oil remain somewhat weak, despite the probability of QE-taper this Wednesday effectively zero.


sp'60min

Summary

There really isn't much to say, other than the bears have again managed morning declines, but...why will we not rally into the afternoon, as we have so many times before?
--

Still no significant power on the bear side...sp'1710/20s still the target.
-

*I'm still long SLV, but if it breaks <19.00...I get the boot.
-

Notable movers so far today, AAPL and FB, both significantly higher, and that doesn't bode well for those equity bears looking for downside into the Monday close.


11.28am... possible inv H/S setting up...more clearly seen on the 15min cycle....

bulls MUST hold 1680...I'm guessing they do.

10am update - upward pressure

Despite a slightly weak open, the underlying pressure remains to the upside, with the main indexes already close to turning green. Bulls still look set for the sp'1710/20s this week. VIX hourly chart is offering a classic black-fail candle to start the week.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

It really doesn't look good for equity bears, not least with a $3bn QE-pomo due to kick in this hour.

A close in the low sp'1700s looks very viable by the close of today, and that should open up another 10-20pts across Tue/Wednesday.
-

Precious metals look choppy..

SLV needs to hold the 19.00s at the close of today. Hourly pressure is currently in favour of upside.