sp'60min
vix'60min
Summary
Its pretty simple for today..and tomorrow.
Any break <1598..and this market unravels. There is simply NO significant support until the lower weekly bollinger - currently 1480 (but rising).
If 1687 was the top, then we are in the early phase of a wave'3, and it would be fierce. I see some claim we might get stuck around 1570/50..or the 1530s (April low), but in all recent multi-week down cycles, that is simply not how its played out.
A loss of 1598 is the last line for the bulls.
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Saying all that, the hourly index charts are very low on the cycle. The price action is very similar to last Wed/early Thursday.
So..lets see how the day proceeds.
*there is mid-sized QE-pomo today - the first in 5 days, along with an array of econ-data.
8.39am.. Jobs and retail data come in slightly better than market expected, so..the main indexes are still holding together.
Looks like we'll open with a buffer of 7-10pts above the key 1598 low.
9.33am.. well, we're opening flat..so..now we'll see if the bulls can rally this nonsense back upward.
9.40am. sp'1608..well, thats still 10pts away from the critical zone.
Considering the 15/60min cycles, bulls should be relieved at this rather quiet open...I know I am.
First upside target is sp'1620/25
9.45am...sp'1611..here is the thing. Even if the bulls manage a rally, its going to take at least 4-6 hours to get any initial bullish signals.
Could be a VERY long day for those anxiously waiting to get away from the critical low.
*I remain long, seeking an exit on the next bounce.