Tuesday 18 June 2013

Mr Market still battling higher

Despite a rather sharp down move in the afternoon of 1%, the sp' closed the day comfortably higher +0.76% @ 1639. Daily and weekly charts remain pretty bullish, and a move into the sp'1700s looks on schedule by mid/late July.


sp'60min'3 - inv H/S



sp'weekly



sp'weekly8 - near term count'2


Summary

Todays' closing 30 minutes typify the market we exist in. Despite a little FT news posting that suggested the Fed might 'soon' be tapering QE, the market rallied from sp'1630 to 1639.

Weekly charts are moderately bullish, and if the count is right, then we're set to hit the 1700/50 area by late July. Ironically, my 'best bear' downside case for late Aug/early Sept' is only sp'1600 - where we were just 8 days ago!

Indeed, if QE largely continues (as I expect), then baring some major upset (EU, Merkel kicked?), the market looks set to climb into spring 2014...at which point we'll be challenging the big sp'2000 level. Yeah...2000, great huh?


Looking ahead

There is minor housing data in the morning. Market will now no doubt be largely focused on the FOMC meeting, with the announcement due Wed' 2pm.

*I will merely look to go long the indexes (again!) early Tuesday, especially if we have a minor down cycle, although the 1620s no longer look viable - based on the closing hour price action.

Goodnight from London