Monday, 17 June 2013

3pm update - Mr Market fears the tapering

It would appear an FT posting that 'the fed will signal tapering' has spooked the market. We've dropped from sp'1646 to 1632..and there is no sign of it stopping yet. Hourly index charts are a problem for early Tuesday. Best case 'bearside' target would be 1620 at the Tuesday open.


sp'60min


Summary

Wow, sp'1632s..and its looking ugly on the hourly chart now.

*I am entirely on the sidelines (dropped SLV-short earlier)..and aim to sit it out until early Tuesday.

On ANY basis, I will again seek to pick up a new index-long early Tuesday..preferably in the 1625/20 area. That would seemingly be a very good level, at least for a day-trade.

The obvious big line in the sand is of course...1608.


Eyes on the VIX...especially early Tuesday.


A new VIX high (>18.60s) would bode VERY badly for the bulls

I don't think it can do it, but hell, I ain't going long, this market is in a bad mood now.


3.07pm...micro-bounce, but this is not looking good for bulls.

Best guess..early Tuesday..1625/20. Enough to spook the weak bulls, draw in the bear-chasers..and then...UP.

Considering the daily charts..I do NOT believe the market will take out 1608 for a few weeks, if not August.


3.28pm..daily charts looking kinda ugly.



*I'm on the sidelines, and will consider an index-long early Tuesday...NOT today. There just looks to be too much risk of gap-down early tomorrow into the low 1620s.


3.38pm.....and that is why its too risky on the short-side. From clown channel, seems the FT writer is now on twitter posting more nonsense.

This market is WEAK, its edgy..and terrified that the QE-pomo stock-ramp juice is going to be cut.
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I still think there is possibility of Tuesday gap-lower, but even sp'1630 now looks a fair way lower.


3.45pm..so...hourly cycles STILL rolling lower...but daily charts...VERY bullish for rest of this week. VIX looks maxed @ 2%...now back to red.

Frankly, I'm just glad to be out of this nonsense.

Lets just see how we open tomorrow morning.
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back at the close.