Volatility melts into the weekend

With the main indexes melting higher into the Friday close, the VIX naturally melted lower, closing -4.1% @ 12.59. Across the week, the VIX lost 2%, after a brief spike to 13.53. The market remains totally complacent.


VIX'60min

VIX,daily

VIX'weekly

Summary

Suffice to say, the VIX closed as expected, and indeed, the weeks price action was also as expected.

We saw just a tiny spike into the mid 13s on Thursday - due to that 'QE tapering' rumour, but that was all the bears got.

The issue now is whether the March'14th VIX low of 11.05 will be taken out. If my index outlook is correct - with Sp'1800s by August, then VIX in the 10s, even (briefly) 9s seems viable.

As I noted earlier in the week, the question has to be asked, will this year even see VIX in the 20s? Despite my index outlook into the late summer, I do think volatility will return in the autumn, and possibly with a vengeance.

a little more later, on the indexes