sp'60min - H/S formation idea
sp'daily3 - fib levels
Summary
Its been a long day, so I'll keep this short. Daily charts remain generally bearish.
I'm wondering if the recent few days of chop is just building a H/S formation, with the RS peak around sp'1655/60. Hard to know, and its just an idea anyway.
Bears need to take out that double low of sp'1635, and that should open up a further 5/10pts to the downside, with VIX in the 16s.
Looking ahead
There is quite a bit of econ-data tomorrow. We have the gas/oil reports, there is also GDP, jobs data, home sales, and corporate profits. That is plenty for Mr Market to be dealing with.
There is no significant QE for Thursday, so bears arguably have more chance of consistent downside. I realise many would disagree with that theory though.
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Bonus chart!
Okay, here is something to close the trading day...
Japan, Nikkei, monthly, 20yr
Equity bears should be seeking a May close <13800, which would make for a marginally red candle. However, the current monthly candle certainly is already spiky, and a reasonable sign that the Nikkei might at least be maxed out for the early summer.
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*I am holding minor-short the indexes overnight, seeking an exit in the sp'1630/25 area, no later than early Friday.
Goodnight from London
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Video bonus, from Biderman
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Update 10.50pm (EST), Nikkei is down almost 400pts, and indeed, might close the month with a huge monster red spiky candle. First downside target is the old breakout level of 12k.