Wednesday, 22 May 2013

Minor retracement into Memorial day?

The main indexes are looking tired. Certainly, they remain within accelerated up channels, and there is nothing bearish yet. Are we looking at a holiday reversal? Near term downside - based on basic Fibonacci for the current wave, would suggest no lower than 1600/1590.




Daily fib' chart is certainly offering sp'1600/1590s, but that looks so difficult. That's around 4% lower, and even the 'big' April move was of that size.

The bigger weekly charts highlight that the lower bollinger band is now up to 1563. By the end of next week, it'll be pretty close to 1600.

There is simply very little hope of a retracement any lower than 1600, and I'd have to guess the market would just rally right back up from there anyway.

Wednesday is..Bernanke day

At 10am the Fed chairman is due to talk to the US congress about the US economy, its the six-monthly event I believe. No doubt, that will get blanket coverage on the clown finance TV networks all morning.

What will the market make of it? An excuse to sell into a long 3 day weekend? Perhaps, the only problem - as ever, for the bears is that Thursday is a mid-sized POMO. I realise, the selling could overcome such a QE prop', but won't be easy, even to break back into the sp'1650s.

As for anything lower, that looks awfully difficult.

*as ever, I do appreciate the comments, and I'm best I can, to add something 'useful' to the wider chartists community.

That's all for today....goodnight from London