Monday, 1 April 2013

Volatility moderately higher

With the indexes seeing some declines, the VIX saw a moderate opening jump, but was maxed out by late morning. The VIX closed +6.9% @ 13.58. Equity bears need to see the VIX back in the 16s before there is any evidence the current equity wave from November has concluded.




So, almost 7% to start the week, but considering the index hourly charts, the VIX could just as easily close Tue/Wednesday -10%.

There seems no point in picking up VIX calls...yet. We could easily see a test of the Oct'2007 high of sp'1576.

The weekly chart will be key this spring. Any weekly close above the 200MA - currently in the 21s, will be the last warning to the equity bulls of a 'problem'.

A little more later on the indexes