Tuesday 2 April 2013

Still waiting for a spike high

The main indexes started the week very mixed, and there are increasing signs that a mid-term cycle top is being formed. Even if a slightly higher high is hit this week, on balance, a multi-week down cycle looks set to begin. Primary target remains the sp'1470s.


sp'weekly



sp'weekly2, rainbow


Summary

So, a somewhat weak start to the week..and month. Its certainly nothing for the bears to get excited about yet, but the signs are unquestionably starting to build.

Given another 4-7 trading days, we'll probably have seen by then, the first little wave lower..to around sp'1530.
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Special note...

Look at the lower bollinger on the weekly charts, its now rising - to be expected, and that arguably represents the 'best bear downside' viable in the weeks ahead.

Indeed, by mid May, the lower bol' will have risen, and be somewhere around 1450/70. 

It is indeed now a race. The faster we fall, the lower we can go. If this down cycle drags out sideways for another week or two, we'll be lucky just to hit the primary target - which is only the sp'1470s.

Frankly, anyone seeking a break <sp'1400 any time soon...sorry, I just can't see any hope of that this side of summer 2013.
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I am seeking to launch a re-short of the indexes this Wednesday in the sp'1575/80 zone.

Goodnight from London